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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Odds & Picks

Written by Steve Janus

The Atlanta Falcons continue their improbable run at New Orleans against the Saints this Sunday. The Falcons are now 8-4 after a key win on the road against the San Diego Chargers last week. The win lets the Falcons remain in the hunt for the Wild Card spot in the NFC, but it also puts them right in the mix for a potential NFC South division title, just one game back of the Panthers and Buccaneers. At 6-6, the Saints aren’t out of the race completely, but they will likely need to win their remaining games. A potential run would need to start this week at home against the Falcons. The Saints are 3 point favorites over Atlanta this week and the total for the game has been set at 44.5.

The Falcons success this season starts with their offensive production. Atlanta is scoring nearly 25 points per game and they are churning out 363 yards of total offense per game. Their passing game has been very solid, especially considering that the offense is run by rookie QB Matt Ryan. Ryan has played like a veteran this year, completing 61% of his passes and throwing for around 210 yards per game. The true strength of the offense, however, is in the back field where the Falcon running backs are averaging 151 yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry. The running game is always important, but the Falcons will likely need to throw the ball down field if they want to keep pace with the NFL’s most prolific passing attack this week.

With all of the success of the Atlanta offense, you don’t hear much about the defense, but this unit has been pretty solid throughout the year. The Falcons give up 20 points per game and allow 335 yards per game. The secondary has down well against the pass, allowing just 222 passing yards per game on 6.5 yards per attempt. The defensive front has been even better, allowing opposing teams only 116 yards per game. This week, especially in the defensive backfield, the Falcons will need to bring their very best. Atlanta is a 3 point dog in New Orleans Sunday.

The Saints certainly get the job done on the offensive side of the ball. They score 28 points per game and rack up 405 total yards per game. With Drew Brees on pace to break the single season NFL passing yards record, you can imagine that the passing offense has enjoyed tremendous success. The Saints gain 317 passing yards per game on an NFL-best 8.1 yards per attempt. The passing game’s success has come at the expense of the running game, which gains only 88 yards per game. The Saints will need to develop their running game if they want to make a run at a playoff spot this year.

As good as the offense has been for the Saints, they have struggled because of their defense. The Saints give up 25 points per game and around 340 yards of total offense per game. They allow 224 passing yards per contest and hold opposing backs to 114 yards per game. These numbers aren’t that bad, but there’s more to the story. Because the Saints throw so much, they also have a lot of three-and-outs on offense and have a tendency to give opposing teams good field position. This allows teams to score more often without racking up that many yards against the Saints. New Orleans is a 3 point favorite at home this week.

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