2011 Florida Marlins Predictions
The Florida Marlins have turned in three straight seasons with at least 80 wins, but they don’t appear ready to take the next step of challenging Philadelphia for an NL East title. The Fish still have some star power with shortstop Hanley Ramirez and ace Josh Johnson, but it’s hard to imagine them making any major leaps after losing Dan Uggla to division rival Atlanta. The Florida Marlins are listed at +3500 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: Johnson was sensational in 2010 (11-6, 2.30 ERA), finishing fifth in the NL Cy Young voting. He was virtually unhittable at home with an ERA of 1.57. Behind him, Ricky Nolasco, Javier Vazquez, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad are likely to round out the right hand-heavy rotation.
The Marlins deemed Nolasco as a keeper, rewarding him with a $26.5 million contract for his 14-win average the last three seasons. Vazquez has shown ace-caliber stuff in the past. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting while with the Braves in 2009. I expect him to have a bounce back campaign after struggling with the Yankees in the powerful AL East last season. Sanchez went 13-12 with a 3.55 ERA in 2010 and Volstad finished 12-9 with an ERA of 4.58.
The bullpen must do a better job of backing up the starters if the Marlins want any shot at contending. Last season, the pen blew 25 of 64 save opportunities. Closer Leo Nunez was responsible for eight of those blown saves. He did, however, become the eighth different Marlin to record 30 saves in a season.
Lineup: Losing Uggla’s power will hurt, but the Marlins should get better glove-work from Omar Infante. He won’t be as productive at the plate as Uggla, but he did hit .321 for the Braves in 2010. Ramirez joins Infante up the middle, and he should be motivated after an off year. He hit .300 with 21 home runs and 76 RBIs a season ago. Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, but we’re talking about a guy who hit .342 with 24 four-base blasts and 101 RBIs in 2009.
First baseman Gaby Sanchez and third baseman Matt Dominguez are expected to lead Florida’s youth movement at the corners. Sanchez finally won the first base spot and impressed with a 19-home run, 85-RBI campaign. Dominguez could be poised to follow the lead of Sanchez by taking over the hot corner this season. Wes Helms will fill in if Dominguez isn’t ready.
Chris Coughlan, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison are projected to be the outfield starters. Coughlan, the former NL Rookie of the Year, is being asked to move from left to center following the departure of Cameron Maybin. Stanton has the look of a superstar in the making. The kid had 43 round trippers and 111 RBIs between Double-A and the majors last season. 22 of those jacks and 59 of those RBIs were with Florida. Morrison has one of the smoothest swings you’ll see, and the rook reached base in 42 straight games at one point last season.
The Marlins are hoping that John Buck can give them the stability they’ve been lacking behind home plate. He hit .281 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs in 118 games for Toronto in 2010.
Prediction – 3rd Place NL East: The Marlins are a solid baseball team. They are good enough to win 80 games for a fourth straight season, but likely not good enough to challenge for the NL East just yet. MLB odds makers have listed the Marlins at +800 to win the NL East.
