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Motivational Factors in Football Handicapping

Written by Jimmy Boyd

When you are handicapping football there are just certain intangible factors that you have to know that you are never going to be able to figure out. Whether it’s bad calls by the referee or just how the ball is going to bounce. Maybe one of the star players is just having a bad day, maybe a corner slipped allowing a big play, anyway, I think you understand what I mean. One intangible that we feel that you can always get a good grasp on, even if it’s not a perfect one, is on the motivaitons. We look at two different types today: looking ahead and revenge.

Looking Ahead

We define looking ahead as when a team has a strong opponent or rival coming up the next week that they really want to beat, but this week they are facing an opponent that they should have little or no trouble handling. The sportsbooks will tend to alter their numbers if they look the team is in a look ahead spot. Another closely related situation is a sandwich game, where the team is playing a weak opponent in the middle of two tough games. We think that your college football betting should be more effected by this than any NFL gambling that you do. The reasoning comes down to youth and experience, kids will have a tendency to get ahead of themselves more than the pros, and there is a bigger talent gap. The pros know that if they look ahead they could get their butt whooped by a team that has yet to win a game this year.

Revenge

If one team beat another in their previous meeting then that team may be even more motivated to prove that they are the better team. This is what we call the revenge factor, and it tends to play out more in the NFL when teams play each other multiple times, than in college football where it’s a rarity. You’ll fine revenge to be even more of a factor in college basketball betting, where a team gets another shot at a squad who upset them, or a good team lost to a great team twice and wants to prove themselves in the post-season.

You won’t see significant changes to the college football odds or NFL spreads due to these factors, but you may see a slight tweaking. If you want more information then take a look at our football betting guide.

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