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Weather Factors in Football Handicapping

In late August and early September when teams start kicking their seasons off, you want have to factor the weather into your football betting or handicapping nearly as much as later in the year. Depending on where the game is, November can start to really give you some crazy conditions and by December you either know it’s going to be bad, or have a strong feeling that it’s going to be. When the weather starts to change, the college football odds and NFL spreads must adjust as well, or else sharp bettors would pound the sportsbooks and make a killing. You must also make a major change to your approach, as the weather is a major football handicapping tool for professional gamblers, or “wise guys” as they are sometimes called. The books must make a decision of sorts. The general public for the large part will ignore the weather reports unless there is something significant going on, smarter bettors know that even minor changes can give you that point or more advantage that you are looking for each week. What you need to really look for more than anything else is wind and rain. The wind can really turn the kicking game upside down and the rain both minimizes the passing game and increases the likelihood of fumbles. Light snow normally does not have any effects on the game, but a heavy snow will.

The weather will have the most affect on the total of the game for betting on football. This is because both odds makers and handicappers feel that their are going to be more bad punts and missed field goals, thus lowering the total score of the game. The key is to look for an extreme, either it’s way too cold, the wind is blowing like crazy, or the rain is just a torrential downpour. 

Smart college football and NFL handicappers will also factor the weather into the line as well. Many times the conditions will bring two teams that are a mismatch closer together. Weather is a great equalizer, plus it’s tough to cover a double digit spread if it’s going to be a lower scoring game than what it would be in perfect conditions. 

If the bad weather is well publicized on national television or radio, then you can bet the public is going to be all over it and the odds makers might even have to over adjust. The real key is when you can come in under the radar with some information, so how do you do that? Check out the up to the minute weather conditions right up until you make your bet at one of the weather sites online, like Weather.com. Another great tip is to check out some forums, as you get people from all across the country talking about games so you can sneak a question in about what the weather is like right now, and get a straight answer. 

If you want more information about how we handicap, check out our football betting guide.

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If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

• Super Bowl Handicapping
• Sports Handicapping Affiliate Program
• 2009 ACC Football Predictions
• Cincinnati at Hawaii Football Odds & Betting Line
• 2009 WAC NCAA Football Predictions

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