Handicapping Injuries in Football

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Football is a rough sport so you know people are going to get hurt, but are you doing enough with your handicapping of injuries in college football and the NFL? Jimmy Boyd gives out his football betting advice on just how he goes through the health reports and how much weight is given to what. You really need to know how the lines are affected by who’s out or not 100%, and then make your choice as to if the odds makers are giving too much or too little weight to that injury. Let’s take a further look. What positions have injuries?

This is the first question that you need to ask yourself, because obviously the quarterback going down is going to have more of an effect on your teams performance than a right tackle. Now to be honest we really take a look at quarterbacks, running backs, and star players, guys who really stand out as above the rest, more than anything else. One reason is that public perception of these players is a lot higher than some of the others. The public is going to put more weight on these players than should be placed, whether or not they deserve it. If a quarterback is having a terrible year and goes down, chances are he’s not a whole lot better than the backup. If a running back is sidelined, then more than likely another great athlete has been sitting on the sidelines, behind him on the depth chart, waiting for a chance to break out. Star players just bring all the media hype, so when they are out panic ensues. Now we think most other positions are replaceable unless there is a real talent there, hopefully one that the public isn’t really aware of so we can take advantage by fading his team. One exception is that when a significant part of a unit goes down, let’s say three of five offensive linemen, then a team is in trouble. Or when the third tight end becomes the starter. More weight is given there. We have more details in our NFL backup quarterbacks and our handicapping NFL backups articles.

Is it college or pro?

Most of the time you are going to be fine in college at major programs when there is an injury, unless it’s the quarterback. The recruiting classes at major schools are deep and loaded with talent, so even if you don’t know who the no. 1 ranked team’s second-string running back is, more than likely he’s also a stud waiting for the guy ahead of him to leave so he can make his run at the Heisman. Now in the pros you have an idea of who each player is, so if a star is out and a lifetime third-stringer is taking his place, this can move the line by three or four points.

Is it public knowledge or speculation?

Again, in the pros this is a little bit different because the NFL issues injury reports, so you normally have a pretty good idea of who is going to play, just like everybody else. In college they keep things hush hush, which means that the odds makers might not know if there really is a player out or not, and if you do then you can ride that to some value. Remember that most of the time the line reflects public knowledge, so if there is some heavy action coming down on one side, then more than likely you are seeing some insider knowledge at work, which may be that a player is either injured or going to play.

We take our football handicapping pretty seriously here at Locksmith Sports, and we prove it by winning consistently with our college football picks and NFL picks. If you don’t want to buy our premium package and want to go at it alone, that’s fine too, but we recommend you read as many articles as you can on how the weather affects football games or how we handicap games based on motivations. We’ll be putting out more information as the days go by, trying to help you become a strong handicapper yourself.

If you want to beat the NFL spreads and college football odds this year then think about signing up for the expert football picks offered by our sports handicappers!

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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