Football Key Numbers for Betting
Everyone instantly goes to three as the key number for football betting and for good reason since about 15% of the time that is the margin of victory. It seems like these days though the number keeps coming up closer and closer to three, whether it’s just a matter of luck or there is something else going on like more even competition. Three is a trouble number for bookmakers who want balanced action on both sides of the game because the sportsbooks don’t want to move the college football odds or the NFL odds off of three. Middling is the last thing that they want, or losing one side and pushing the other. The solution for many online sportsbooks has been to move to the off-standard line. This means that they adjust the vig the bettor has to pay instead of moving the point spread, so it’s kind of like a money line for the point spread, one side might be -130, the other +110. The books still run into the problem of so many games landing on the number, but all they will lose out on are the potential profits of the balanced action and the operational costs of taking the bets, no more losing one side while pushing the other. The other key football numbers are 7, 10, 6, and 4. Four used to be a lot more popular before the 2-point conversion came into play, so now teams are more likely to try to get it to three and lose by five.
Besides the two point conversion, there is also parity in both college football and the NFL which has lead to closer games, and thus more games being decided late. Teams are pretty evenly matched, so an even pair will get the home-field advantage of between three-to-four (which you better know if you plan on making winning football picks) and win up as a field goal favorite, give or take a little. Plus, you have to look at the overall quality of the kickers in the game. In the NFL, these guys are nearly automatic at making field goals now and in college they are much more reliable as when when the game is on the line.
These days you’ll see more line movements from books early in the week when football betting action starts rolling in, rather than when the big chunk of money falls in later in the week. Once it moves though the book rarely stays off of it though, since they aren’t going to want to hop scotch back and forth and get middled. These line movements though normally just effect the key numbers, for instance if a game moves from -1 to +1 the books rarely give it much worry.
If you want to know when you buy points, then read our NFL key numbers article to get an idea of the profitable situations. You can also purchase our weekly NFL picks or college football predictions and profit big over the books this year!
