Forrest Griffin v. Stephan Bonnar

Forrest Griffin v. Stephan Bonnar will be a rematch of The Ultimate Fighter first season finale is as close to a guaranteed thriller as one can ever hope for in the unpredictable world of mixed martial arts. The gritty display these two put on in their first meeting in the cage was one of the most hard fought and closely decided contests of 2005, and there is little reason to believe that their upcoming confrontation at UFC 62 will be any different. Both Griffin and Bonnar find themselves entering this match in different circumstances than in their original meeting, and both have potentially far more to lose. The difference, I believe, lies in which fighter has more to win.

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On Sunday, Griffin will step into the cage a considerable favorite over Bonnar. That fact is owing entirely to the way each competitor has performed in the time since the first fight; it has nothing to do with a comparison of the skill set each fighter possesses relative to the other. Indeed, from fight style to build to even charisma in front of the camera, these two TUF veterans stack up almost identically. Each possesses a solid all-around MMA game, each can fight comfortably from virtually any position they find themselves in, and each has the raw tenacity and desire to outwork the opposition. On the other hand, Griffin and Bonnar have seen their careers progress in decidedly different fashions since April 9, 2005.

Following his razor thin victory over Bonnar, Griffin was tossed a couple of softballs named Bill Mahood and Elvis Sonosic. These fighters were out-sized, out-skilled, and generally out-classed in every way imaginable, and that’s the way the UFC wanted it. Not surprisingly, Griffin managed to look impressive, defeating both in dominant fashion before being thrown in with Tito Ortiz. Though he lost a close decision, Forrest performed well, and his stock has continued to rise. The career of Bonnar, on the other hand, is on a decided downturn. After good showings against Sam Hoger and James Irvin, Bonnar pulled out a bit of a gift decision against Keith Jardine then was handed a clear decision loss courtesy of Rashad Evans. The two most recent and unimpressive performances by Bonnar came in the wake of the death of his longtime trainer and mentor Carlson Gracie, and there are certainly questions concerning Bonnar’s ability to continue fighting with his previously superb level of intensity.

I mentioned above that I believe these discrepant performances in the past year or so have lead the odds-makers to favor Griffin, but I find them to be a bit misleading. Before stepping up to fight Ortiz, Griffin pounded two fighters who naturally weigh below the 205 lbs weight limit and have a combined 1-5 record in UFC competition. Granted he looked good against Ortiz in the second and third rounds of that fight, but Tito was rumored to be hurt, and he completely controlled Griffin while each was fresh in the first. In Bonnar’s “win” against Jardine, as well as in his loss to Evans, he was taking on two tanks who possess more than enough size and strength to compete at heavyweight. Each out-muscled Bonnar, effectively neutralizing his submission attempts and staying busy enough on the ground to deserve a victory. If you reverse the fortunes of each fighter on the night of their first fight and give that win to Bonnar (which many believe should have happened), it is likely each would have handled the other’s career path in similar fashion, and then all of a sudden Stephan Bonnar would be the odds-on favorite to win this fight.

Roughly 16 months removed from their first battle, these two enter their upcoming rematch having both tasted the glory of the TUF spotlight as well as the bitter taste of defeat that comes with better competition. Beyond this added experience and the inevitable improvement it has brought, Griffin and Bonnar are more or less the same fighters they were back when they first met in the octagon. They were evenly matched then and they’ll be evenly matched Saturday. That in itself is enough to like Bonnar as an underdog in this fight, but on top of that, there are motivational reasons to go with “The American Psycho.” Stephan has wanted and even publicly requested this fight since he first heard Bruce Buffer announce Forrest as the winner of their first match. If he wins, he will immediately be propelled back into the UFC light heavyweight scene and will have avenged perhaps the most crushing defeat of his career. For Griffin, a win Sunday night essentially maintains his current position within the division. It is hard to imagine his prospects will rise considerably by defeating for the second time a fighter many have already begun to write off. For this reason, I think you’re going to see a re-energized Stephan Bonnar pull out a close decision victory over Forrest Griffin, if only because he wants and needs the victory that much more.