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NBA Free Picks 1/8

Written by Steve Janus

nba-free-picks-010809 It’s a light night for NBA betting with just two games scheduled for Thursday night. The Knicks face the Mavericks in Dallas and the Spurs host the Clippers in San Antonio. Not exactly key match ups in the NBA, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some money on them.

First, let’s take a look at the Knicks at the Mavs. This is a series that Dallas has dominated lately, winning 6 straight games against New York, including a 5-1 record against the spread. It should be said, however, that the Mavs have only gone 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 home games, so it’s safe to say the the guys setting the NBA odds are counting on the public overvaluing the Mavs in Dallas. On the flip side, the Knicks are on a 9-2 streak against the spread as an underdog and have covered in 7 of their last 9 road games.

It’s not a strong play on the Knicks for me tonight, but I do think this is one of those cases were the perception is that the Mavs are good and playing at home and the Knicks are terrible and playing on the road, so the easy play is the Mavs, right? Wrong! I’ll take the Knicks, whose offense is a lot better than you might think. They should be able to keep up with Dirk and company tonight.

Take the New York Knicks +8

Predicted Score: Dallas Mavericks 106, New York Knicks 102

As for the Clippers at the Spurs, I see a lot of similarities between this game and the game between the Mavs and the Knicks. Obviously the Spurs have had more success this season, but are they really 13 points better than the Clippers in this situation? I would say that they can be, but they don’t need to be. The Spurs are a solid 13-6 at home this year and 23-11 overall, leading the way in the Southwest Division, just one game ahead of New Orleans. The Spurs need to keep winning to stay ahead of the surging Hornets, but they don’t need to blow anyone out. There are no style points in the NBA. Despite a poor overall performance the Clippers are 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 11+ and 7-2 ATS as an underdog on the road. I’ll take the points and the Clippers in San Antonio tonight.

Take the L.A. Clippers -13

Predicted Score: San Antonio Spurs 96, L.A. Clippers 89

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