Handicapping 101

Simply put, hot streaks can be bad beats. Just because a team is bringing home the bacon in the win column doesn’t mean that it is beating the spread. For example, during the Phoenix Suns recent 17-game win streak, they covered the spread 10 out of the 17 times. In this case it would still mean profit if you were playing the Suns, but not as much as if you would have been backing the New Jersey Nets during the same time frame. From December twenty-ninth to January twenty-eight, the span of Phoenix’s 17-game run, the Nets were 11-5 straight up. But they were even better against the number with a 14-2 mark including two different stretches where they beat the spread in six straight games. Obviously, the Nets weren’t getting near as much attention as the Suns, but if you do your homework, you can take advantage of these teams going under-the-radar who are beating the books on a regular basis.

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The New Orleans Hornets are probably a team that many of you wouldn’t ever think about betting on but from January tenth to the present, the Hornets are 11-3 against the spread. We all know that the Dallas Mavericks are the best team in the NBA right now. After a loss to Chicago on January twenty-fifth, the Mavericks have started another winning streak winning four straight games. In those four wins, however, the Mavs have beat the spread just one time. Not much is expected of teams like the Hornets, not even from the books. If you can find patches where these under-the-radar teams are playing well, maybe not winning but playing solid, you can really take advantage as the books expect these teams to lose a lot more than they win. Good teams are more consistent and easier to set lines for so if you’re able to stay up on some of the more mediocre and bad teams, you could find some very good beats.

Let’s take a look at the Spurs of late since they are a team which is expected to contend for the Western Conference. The books know that the public expects San Antonio to win virtually every night and recently when it hasn’t been playing its best the books have continued to favor the Spurs heavily. During this current stretch where the Spurs have lost eight of 10 games against the spread, they have been favored nine of the 10 games and by five points or more seven times. It’s important that you don’t bet on a team based on how they are supposed to do. Make bets for and against a team based on the reality of its situation.

The moral of the story is not to get overly caught up in which teams are hot and which teams are not and which teams are supposed to be good and which teams aren’t because against the spread it may not matter.

February 10th, 2007