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Horse Racing Handicapping on Layoffs

Written by Jimmy Boyd

When horse racing handicapping a pony that is coming off a layoff there is no easy way to tell how the horse is going to react to the rest period. Past comeback attempts do not have any influence over the current one, so if a horse was successful off a rest period in the past, the line could be skewed towards him performing well again, but that isn’t going to necessarily be the case. If you want to make sure that you do not fall into this kind of trap then take to heart these simple rules for horses coming off layoffs and your racing betting will become more profitable:

You have to see how the thoroughbred performed in the past coming off a layoff. The trainer is going to need a high winning percentage (15% or higher). You will want to look for solid workouts, more specifically if a horse is coming off a 30 to 60 day rest period then a four-furlong workout within a week of the race is necessary. For those horses who are coming off layoffs of more than two months but less then six a five furlong workout within two weeks of the race is the guideline.

What happened to this horse in the last race before the layoff. Was it performing well? Then check to see if the horse has raced at the track before. If it hasn’t then you should see a workout or two around the track to get the horse familiar with the surface. If a thoroughbred has been resting for more than six months it typically doesn’t perform as well as those rested for shorter periods. Even if the horse has a great trainer, jockey, and fast workouts, don’t get suckered into taking horses off a long layoff period.

The best horses to look for coming off layoffs are ponies that either came out blazing and faded down the stretch, or started slowly and made a run at the end. These are the horses that are targetted as needing some rest, and a little freshening should help the horse in it’s next showing at the track. Also, look at the body language on race day, if it’s sweating too much then it’s wasting energy and you are going to want to stay away.

You’ll also want to key in on the third race after a layoff. It doesn’t matter if the first two races where sprints or routes, this is the deciding race for the horse and is normally the optimal performance, especially if it was improving in the first two runs.

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on January 16, 2008 · Filed Under Horse Racing Betting

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