Horse Racing Odds

Written by Jimmy Boyd on January 16, 2008

Before you start betting at the track one thing you will want to know is how the horse racing odds are set each morning. There are more than a few things that the line makers consider right away and take into consideration, some hard and fast rules that are used everywhere that if you want to start horse racing handicapping you should know.

The first is that the horse racing odds for almost every race will add up to 100 plus whatever the house edge is, so for a full field you’ll see the total between 120 and 125. This is the normal situation, but you’ll see that skewed a little bit by a bad choice of a favorite or if there is a significant mistake in the number on a horse, too high or too low.

If you want to beat the horse racing odds then you have to know who is going to be setting the lines. There are some guys out there who are better than others, so if you know a guy is really sharp then you might want to see if he’s shading a horse. If he is newer or inexperienced then you may be more confident in your abilities to beat him at the track and risk a little extra than normal on your wagers. These numbers are set as to how the betting public will react to the race, and not the true odds for each horse. This is important because where the public money is going will determine the line, meaning that you can beat the odds if you know where that money is going when it shouldn’t be, and where it isn’t when it should be.

Any good handicapper will tell you to set your own line on the race before seeing the numbers and then comparing it to the stated odds. This is the best way to figure out which horses to back and which are being overvalued. Try not to be influenced by what you think they will be at, but what they “should be at.” You’ll want to eliminate horses that you know won’t get much action from the public, there will be a horse or two per race and these will be the heavy dogs. Next, see how the race will set up in terms of speed and the shape it will take. Find a favorite and then rank the remaining horses from top to bottom. Set the line you think that horse should have and then go down the line. The number that you assign to the horse will be the percentage chance of winning, and if you set yours to 100, then you’ll be able to see how it compares to the odds makers value of 125. If you have more value than he gave the horse, this is a bet.

This is the process that experienced line makers use when setting the horse racing odds. If you use the same techniques and then find different numbers, these are the value bets that will leave you in the positive over the long run.

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