2011 Houston Astros Predictions
It’s now been five seasons since the Houston Astros won the NL Pennant, and it doesn’t appear they will be in contention to win another one any time soon. After all, the Astros have just posted losing records in consecutive seasons for the first time in two decades.
While I admit Houston’s chances of winning the NL Central aren’t looking too good, I’m not about to ignore all signs of optimism. The club did go 59-52 after June 1 last season. In addition, Houston has added some much-needed offense with the additions of Clint Barnes and Bill Hall. Baseball odds makers have listed the Houston Astros at +10000 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: With Roy Oswalt now in Philadelphia, there aren’t any big name pitchers left in the Astros’ starting rotation. Still, led by Brett Myers, Houston starters managed to post a 3.42 ERA after the All-Star break last season. Only the Phillies and Giants’ starting rotations had better ERA’s in the second half.
Myers is coming off a sensational season in which he went 14-8 with a 3.12 ERA. He’ll be joined by Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ and Bud Norris. Despite a slow start, Rodriguez finished 11-12 with a 3.60 ERA. Happ could be poised for a breakout season after going 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA after coming over from Philly. Like so many of Houston’s starters, Norris finally found his groove in the second half of the season. He had a rough go of it early on, however, as evidenced by his 4.92 ERA.
Ryan Rowland-Smith, Nelson Figueroa and top prospect Jordan Lyles are among those who will be competing for the fifth starting spot in the rotation.
The bullpen isn’t without question marks, but at least the club likes what it has in Brandon Lyon. He saved 20 games in 22 chances after assuming the role of closer in 2010.
Lineup: Houston’s offense was among the worst in baseball as season ago. With this in mind, the Astros are hoping newcomers Barnes and Hall can bring some much-needed pop. Barnes drove in 50 runs in 133 games for Colorado in 2010 and Hall slugged 18 round trippers in 119 games for Boston.
Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace are expected to join Barnes and Hall in the infield at third and first respectively. Johnson is coming off a phenomenal rookie campaign in which he hit .308 with 11 jacks and 52 RBIs. Houston is hopeful that Wallace is ready to assume every day duties at first. He hit just .222 in 51 games last year but has always been a solid run producer in the minors. The club will likely bring Carlos Lee in from left if Wallace needs more time.
Hopefully Lee will be able to stay in the outfield alongside Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. Lee’s numbers were down in 2010, but he still managed 24 homers and 89 RBIs. Bourn is a two-time Gold Glove winner and two-time NL steals leader. Pence is coming off his third straight season with at least 25 home runs.
Houston is hopeful that Jason Castro is its catcher of the future. He struggled at the plate in his first major league season, but the Astros still believe the former first-round pick has a bright future.
Prediction – 5th Place NL Central: Houston added a couple nice pieces in Barnes and Hall, but they won’t provide enough help offensively to catapult the club to the top of the Central. The Astros are listed at +2500 to win the NL Central.