Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals NFL Picks & Odds

The 2-3 Houston Texans head to Paul Brown Stadium this Sunday to take on the 4-1 Cincinnati Bengals in a Week 6 AFC showdown. Last week, the Texans dug themselves a 21-0 hole against Arizona but clawed their way back to tie the game before losing 28-21. The Texans had another chance to score, but they were stuffed four times near the goal line in the final minute. We are getting used to seeing Bengals’ games go right down to the wire. For the fifth straight week, Cincy played a game that was decided in the final minute. A late touchdown catch by Andre Caldwell helped the Bengals defeat the Ravens 17-14. These teams last met in Week 8 of last season with the Texans blowing out the Bengals 35-6 behind a three touchdown day by QB Matt Schaub. The Bengals own a 3-1 lead in the all-time series and NFL odds makers expect them to build on that this week. The Cincinnati Bengals are listed as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 45.

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The Bengals have been the drama kings of the NFL this season with four straight narrow victories. I know a win is a win is a win, but the next step for the Bengals is to completely dominant a game to win convincingly. With each narrow win, Cincy’s confidence has grown, and sooner or later I expect the Cardiac Cats to finally explode.

Perhaps the biggest key to the Bengals’ turnaround is running back Cedric Benson. After a disappointing stint in Chicago, the Bengals offered him a second chance last season and he’s taking full advantage. Benson is unquestionably having his best season and currently leads the NFL in rushing. He hasn’t done it against cupcakes either. Against the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Denver, three of the NFL’s top six rushing defenses, Benson has averaged 91 yards per game and a touchdown. His yards figure to come easier this week against the Texans 26th ranked run defense.

Another key to Cincinnati’s success has been the changed attitude of wide receiver Chad Ochocinco. He leads the Bengals with 24 catches for 352 yards and three scores. But most importantly, he has not been the distraction he’s been in the past. A Chad Ochocinco focused on winning is good news for the Bengals. It is worth noting that the Texans are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record. If you like Cincy to keep rolling this week and to cover the number in the process, bet the Bengals at -4.5 at Sportsbook.com.

Consistency has been a problem for the Texans over the past couple seasons and it is continuing again in 2009. The Texans have alternated wins and losses and the thing that sticks out is their turnover ratio. In Houston’s two wins, it has a plus-three turnover ratio. In its three losses, it has a minus-2 turnover ratio.

Offensively, QB Matt Schaub is always a key. He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals last season, completing 24 of 28 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. When he plays well, the result is a “W” more times than not for Houston. In fact, the Texans are 8-3 when Schaub posts a passer rating of 100 or better. It is worth noting that the Bengals are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a home favorite. If you’re not ready to lay points on a Bengals team that always seems to play close games, bet the Texans at +4.5 at Sportsbook.com.

Jimmy Boyd scored big last Sunday with his NFL Game of the Month on the Arizona Cardinals, don’t miss any of this week’s big winners in his NFL expert picks package!

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