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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts NFL Picks & Betting Odds

Written by Jimmy Boyd

The 5-3 Houston Texans look to hand the 7-0 Indianapolis Colts their first loss of the season Sunday when these two AFC South rivals go head-to-head. Last week, the Texans overcame an early deficit against Buffalo and then the rout was on, cruising to a 31-10 victory. Meanwhile, Indy got its first scare in a long time, just sneaking past the 49ers 18-14. These teams last met in Week 11 of last season with the Colts squeaking out a 33-27 win behind a 320-yard day from Peyton Manning. This series has been all Indy. The Colts have won 13 of the 14 matchups in the all-time tilt. NFL lines makers expect Indy to continue its dominance over the Texans and to continue its winning streak, listing the Colts as 9-point favorites with the total set at 48.

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Texans QB Matt Schaub is having an outstanding season, already throwing for 2,342 yards and a career high 16 touchdowns. In order to defeat the Colts, he and the offense will have to overcome some adversity, however. Last week, star tight end Owen Daniels was lost for the season. Daniels has been as important to the Texans’ offense as Dallas Clark has been to the Colts. Daniels is Houston’s second leading receiver with 40 catches for 519 yards and five touchdowns. Now the Texans will have to put their faith in backups Joel Dreessen and James Casey. Dreessen is known more for his blocking ability and Casey is a rookie still learning the ropes. Not having Daniels will likely allow the Colts to focus more on Andre Johnson until some of the other guys can step up and make plays.

The Texans have now won three in a row and they have an opportunity to make a major statement this week if they can beat the cream of the crop in the South. For them to do so, not only will the offense have to be clicking, but the defense must come up big as well. That means that Mario Williams, who has three sacks in his last three games against the Colts, is going to have to be in Manning’s face all game long. It is worth noting that the Colts are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. If you think Houston can take the Colts down to the wire, bet the Texans at +9 at Sportsbook.com.

Peyton Manning is having an MVP-type season and he has long had Houston’s number. In fact, Manning is 7-0 at home against Houston in his career with 20 touchdown strikes against only two interceptions. And after getting a scare from San Francisco, I expect him to be even more focused.

It’s hard to think the Colts won’t be able to move the football at home so the key to winning and covering the spread will be stopping a Texans offense which can be very explosive. Much of that responsibility falls on Dwight Freeney. The Pro Bowl defensive end has been on a tear with at least one sack in eight straight games. He was especially a thorn in the side of the Texans last season, recording three sacks in two games while making life very difficult for Schaub. It is worth noting that the Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. If you think Indy will bounce back from last week’s scare to show Houston that it’s not in its league yet, bet the Colts at -9 at Sportsbook.com.

Three weeks ago, Jimmy nailed his 5* NFL Underdog Shocker of the Year on Houston. Two weeks ago, he struck again with his 5* NFL Favorite of the Year on Dallas. Last week, he landed his 5* NFC Game of the Year on the Panthers. All of these picks crushed the spread by double digits and Jimmy will be ready to go with another huge 5* pick this Sunday. Get it in his NFL expert picks package.

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 4, 2009 · Filed Under NFL Betting Articles, News & Previews

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