Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans NFL Picks & Odds

The 10-0 Indianapolis Colts head to Houston to take on the 5-5 Texans Sunday in a Week 12 AFC South Division showdown. Last week, the Colts held off yet another opponent to stay unbeaten, defeating the Ravens 17-15. It was deja vu all over again for Texans kicker Kris Brown, who missed yet another field goal as time expired to keep his team from a chance in overtime. Brown had just missed a field goal as time expired against the Colts as Houston fell 17-20 in its previous game. This series has been all Indy with the Colts holding a commanding 14-1 lead, and NFL odds makers expect Indy to tack on another win. The Indianapolis Colts are listed as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 48.

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Texans QB Matt Schaub has thrown for 300 or more yards in four straight games now, but he can’t do it all on his own. The Texans need to mount a running attack so they can draw up opposing safeties for big plays in the play action game. That means that the offensive line needs to get down and dirty and it also means that Steve Slaton needs to snap out of it. Much like the Bears’ Matt Forte, Slaton is enduring what you might call a sophomore slump. Slaton put up some big numbers as a rookie but he is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season and has seven fumbles. For the Texans to finally make it over the hump and into the playoffs the offense must become more balanced.

Where are you Super Mario? Mario Williams only has four sacks on the season and one forced fumble. I know the guy is a marked man, but plenty of other star pass rushers are getting the job done year in and year out. Let’s put it this way; for the Texans to beat the Colts, they are going to need Williams breathing down Peyton Manning’s neck all game long. It is worth noting that the Texans are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. If you like Houston to pull off the upset Sunday, bet the Texans at +3 at Bodog.

The Colts have now won 19 straight regular season games dating back to last season and each win is getting tougher and tougher to come by. In fact, each of Indy’s last four wins have come by four points or less. And this particular matchup has gotten very tight of late. Indy has won each of the last three meetings, but it hasn’t covered the spread in any of them. And two of the last three games have been decided by four points or less.

Houston’s secondary has been susceptible to allowing some big days through the air against good passing teams. Manning just hit up the Texans for 306 yards when they faced off on November 8th. The guy the Houston defense will have to be the most concerned about is long time Texans killer Reggie Wayne, who has 88 career catches against them. It is worth noting that the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. If you like this trend to continue, bet the Colts at -3 at Bodog.

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