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Iowa at Penn State Football Picks & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd

iowa penn st 92209 The Iowa Hawkeyes head to Happy Valley to take on the fifth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions this Saturday in their Big Ten opener. Penn State enters at 3-0 with easy wins over Akron, Syracuse, and Temple. This is the game the Nittany Lions have had circled since last season, though. Iowa has had Penn State’s number, winning six of the last seven meetings, including a thrilling 24-23 win in Iowa City last November on a last second field goal to crush Penn State’s national championship hopes. In other words, the Nittany Lions will be out for revenge. Iowa also enters at 3-0 with wins over in-state rivals Northern Iowa and Iowa State, and Arizona last week. Football odds makers are confident the Lions will have their revenge, listing Penn State as a 10-point favorite.

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Penn State has won 30 of its last 32 games at Beaver Stadium so the Hawkeyes will have to overcome one of the better home field advantages in college football if they hope to shock the Lions again this season. Offensively, Penn State is led by quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster. Clark has already developed chemistry with his young receiving corps and has now thrown 14 touchdown strikes in his last five games. Clark’s playmaking ability figures to be a major key for Penn State against an Iowa defense which is normally very stiff against the run. Penn State did get its running game on track a week ago, rushing for 186 yards, with tailback Evan Roster leading the way with 134 yards and a score.

While Penn State has had its way with its non-conference opponents, now we get to see how it stacks up against a team with similar bulk up front on both sides of the football. The Nittany Lions feel good about how they have stopped the run and pressured opposing QB’s defensively, but a few questions have surfaced on the offensive side of the football. One such question is: can the retooled offensive line hold up consistently against the best defenses in the Big Ten?

Iowa just might have an advantage over Penn State this week as it has played two BCS conference schools in its non-conference slate, including a very fast Arizona team last week. Penn State’s retooled offensive line does figure to get a test this week from an Iowa defense which has been very solid thus far. Arizona entered last week’s contest averaging 305 rushing yards per game, but it was held to just 148 by Iowa. Defensive end Adrian Clayborn will have to be a marked man for Penn State this week. He was all over the field in Iowa’s win over Arizona, finishing with six tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble. Iowa has also proved to be a big play defense, recording at least one takeaway in 36 of its last 38 games. Defensive backs Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood have been Iowa’s big play guys this season with multiple interceptions and big hits to their name. Sash has four picks in Iowa’s last two games.

Heading into the season, Iowa did not know what kind of shape its running game would be in after losing its Doak Walker Award winner, but thus far it has been pretty productive behind a pair of impressive freshman backs. Brandon Wegher broke the century mark against Iowa State and then Adam Robinson did it last week against Arizona. Iowa’s running game has done a nice job of setting up the Hawkeyes’ patented play-action opportunities for QB Ricky Stanzi, who has thrown for 644 yards and five touchdowns against three interceptions.

Iowa should also get a boost from the return of tight end Tony Moeaki and wide receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos this week. Offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga could be back as well.

Prediction: I think Penn State will have its revenge at home, but I also expect this to be a close game. Iowa has consistently played Penn State tough and it has a defense capable of slowing down Clark and Royster. The underdog is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine head-to-head meetings, and the Hawkeyes are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings at Penn State. Plus, Iowa is a perfect 6-0 against the number versus teams with a winning record while the Nittany Lions are just 1-5 against the number in their last six games as a favorite. Bet Iowa at +10 at Bookmaker.

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