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Iowa v. Penn State Football Picks & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 6, 2008

Prior to their bye week, the undefeated and third-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions got their toughest test of the season, a hard-fought 13-6 win at Ohio State, and the odds makers see this week’s matchup at Iowa as being no picnic either. Iowa comes in off a heartbreaking 27-24 loss at Illinois which dropped the Hawkeyes to 5-4 on the season. However, Iowa could just as easily be undefeated. The Hawkeyes have not lost a game by more than five points this season. They have a pair of losses by a field goal margin and another by one point. That’s why odds makers have not dialed up an all out blowout this week, listing Penn State as the 7.5-point favorite with the total at 43.5

This will be the 21st meeting between the two schools in the all-time series ans Penn State holds a narrow 11-9 advantage. Iowa won five straight matchups from 2000-2004, but Penn State bounced back with a 27-7 win in Happy Valley last season. Penn State wasn’t able to do much offensively against the Buckeyes and it will face one of the stingiest defenses in the nation again this week. The Iowa defense is currently yielding just 13.2 ppg and 301.6 yards of total offense. Penn State has the luxury of going at the Iowa defense with one of the toughest offenses around. The Nittany Lions are averaging 41.8 ppg on the season with a balanced attack putting up 233.4 ypg through the air and gaining 226.3 ypg on the ground.

QB Daryll Clark is the biggest reason why the Lions have spring boarded into the spotlight this season. He has completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,652 yards and 11 touchdowns against just two picks. He has also done plenty of damage with his legs, scoring eight rushing touchdowns and averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Tailback Evan Royster has been the other big offensive weapon for the Lions. He is averaging a gaudy 7.2 yards per carry ans 107.8 yards per game on the ground. He also has 10 rushing scores on the season. Wide receivers Deon Butler, Derrick Williams, and Jordan Norwood all have at least 26 grabs and 295 yards receiving on the season.

Penn State’s defense has taken a back seat to the offense because of how spectacular the offense has been but it also deserves its due. The Penn State defense limited Ohio State to its lowest point total at home since 1982, a mere six points. The Penn State defense is only allowing 11.1 ppg on 265.9 yards of total offense.

Over the years, few places have proven tougher to play in than Iowa City’s Kinnick Stadium and Iowa has certainly shown the ability to move the sticks this season. Iowa is averaging 379.1 yards of total offense, including 190 on the ground with nearly a five yards per carry average. Teams have tried to stack the line of scrimmage to take away the run, but when they have Iowa has done a good job with its play action passing game. Tailback Shon Greene is the star of the offense, averaging 139.7 yards per game with over a six yards per carry average. He has 11 of the team’s 19 rushing scores this season. Even good rushing defenses have not been able to stop the potent Iowa running attack this year.

QB Ricky Stanzi is playing well in his first year under center, throwing for 1,311 yards and nine scores with six picks. Wideout Andy Brodell is the top option in the vertical game, with 27 catches, for 454 yards and four TDs. He is Iowa’s best homerun threat to exploit defenses with when they are sitting on the run.

I have already mentioned that the Iowa defense is holding opponents to just 13.2 ppg and only 301.6 yards of offense and it has proven to be one of the best big play units in all of football. Iowa has 20 takeaways with 16 of those being interceptions. Middle linebacker Pat Angerer is the top playmaker, pacing the team in total tackles (71) and interceptions (four). Cornerback Amari Spievey adds three picks and 46 stops. First Team All-Big Ten defensive tackle Mitch King is the top performer along the defensive front. Out of his 43 total tackles, 11 have come behind the line of scrimmage, including three sacks.

Iowa is tough to beat on its home field and has had great success against the Lions. Iowa is 6-2 straight up and against the number against Penn State over the last eight meetings and this Big Ten series has seen the underdog go 6-2 against the linemaker with four outright upsets. Iowa might not come away with the win, but I like its chances against the number. Bet Iowa at +7.5 at Bookmaker and receive a 20% cash sign up bonus.

Check out the football odds each and every week at Locksmith Sports to see which premier books carry the best line on the games you’re looking to play. Jimmy’s weekly NCAA football picks have been among the best in the business this season and he’s ready to help your start cashing in on your football betting.