Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets NFL Odds & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 11, 2009

The 4-4 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 4-4 New York Jets will both be looking to get over the .500 mark when they meet this Sunday in a Week 10 AFC showdown. Since getting out to a fast start, the Jets have dropped four of five, but they should be prepared for this one coming off a bye last week. Last week, the Jaguars bounced back after giving Tennessee its first win of the season with a 24-21 win over the Chiefs. These two teams last met in 2006 and it was all Jacksonville with a 41-0 victory, the fourth for the Jags in the last five meetings. But the books like New York at home this week, listing the Jets as 7-point favorites with the total set at 40.

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Good QB play has been a major key to winning in Jacksonville. That was certainly the case two years ago when the Jags posted a 12-win season. In fact, Jacksonville is 15-4 when David Garrard posts a passer rating of 100 or better as a starter. Strong QB play is a must if the Jags hope to pull off the upset this week, especially since Garrard has not performed well on the road this season. In four road games, Garrard has not thrown even one touchdown pass while being intercepted twice. The Jags have lost three of those four games and are being outscored by 13.2 points per game on the road this season.

Jacksonville’s lack of a pass rush was perceived to be the biggest thing keeping it from challenging Indy for the AFC South title a couple season’s back. Despite paying close attention to this need in the draft, the Jags’ pass rush is still a major weakness. In fact, the Jags have the NFL’s lowest sack total so far this season (8). Bringing the heat consistently this week could mean a win as Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has not been immune to making costly mistakes. It is worth noting that the Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head meetings. If you like Jacksonville to keep this one within the number, bet the Jaguars at +7 at Bookmaker.

New York got off to a 3-0 start this season, largely because its defense looked to be one of the best in the league under first year head coach Rex Ryan. In fact, the Jets held their opponents to just 11 points per game through the first three weeks. Since, the Jets have gone 1-4 and they have allowed 20.2 points per game. That figure even includes a shutout over the lowly Raiders. Rex Ryan knows his defense must play better if they hope to make a playoff run. The adjustments he makes during the bye week could go a long way toward securing a win this week and going on a strong second half of the season run.

Offensively, the Jets must continue to pound the football with their NFL-leading rushing attack to take as much pressure as possible off of Sanchez. It is worth noting that the Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. If you like this trend to hold strong Sunday, bet the Jets at -7 at Bookmaker.

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