2011 Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions
The Jaguars finished second in the AFC South with an 8-8 record in 2010. You know what they say about second place – it’s the first loser.
Jacksonville had an excellent opportunity to win the division for the first time last season but let it slip away down the stretch. It’s now been three seasons since the Jags posted a winning record and made a trip to the playoffs.
Offense: The Jaguars ranked 15th in the NFL in total offense in 2010 with 341.2 yards per game. They ranked 18th in scoring with 22.1 points per game.
Led by All-Pro running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars did much of their damage on the ground. Jones-Drew rushed for 1,324 yards and five scores and helped the Jags finish third in the league with 149.7 rushing yards per game.
The passing game needs to catch up. The Jaguars ranked 27th in the league with 191.6 yards per game through the air last season. David Garrard completed over 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,734 yards and had a franchise-record 23 touchdown strikes, but that didn’t stop the Jags from drafting Blaine Gabbert with the 10th pick in the draft.
Gabbert is the quarterback of the future. His presence puts added pressure on Garrard to deliver.
The Jaguars must look to add star power at the wide receiver position in the very near future. They haven’t had a big-play wideout since Jimmy Smith retired following the 2005 season. Mike Thomas is a quality wideout, but he’s not feared.
The Jags do have an elite tight end in Mercedes Lewis. He had 58 receptions for 700 yards and led the team with 10 touchdown catches last year. He’s also a great blocker.
There are still questions on the interior of the line, but a unit anchored by bookend tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton should be just fine.
Defense: The Jaguars struggled defensively in 2010, just like every other team in the AFC South. They ranked 27th in scoring defense with 26.2 points allowed per game and 28th in total defense with 371.8 yards allowed per contest.
Jacksonville has been desperately trying to improve its pass rush in recent years. The defense came up with 26 sacks last season, eight more than it had in 2009, but that figure was still only good for 30th in the league.
The Jags must be able to apply more pressure or teams will continue to pick them apart through the air. Jacksonville ranked 28th in the league with 250.2 passing yards allowed per game in 2010.
The interior line is set with Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu, but the jury is still out on former Iowa Hawkeye ends Aaron Kampman and Matt Roth. Kampman has suffered two ACL injuries in as many seasons, which raises the question if he’ll be able to return to the form he displayed from 2006-2008 when he averaged 12.2 sacks per season. Roth hasn’t had more than five sacks in a season in his seven-year NFL career.
The linebacking unit looked like it would be a big area of concern, but the Jags shored things up in the second layer by adding Paul Posluszny and Clint Session.
Upgrading still needs to be done across the back. Derek Cox, who led the team with four interceptions last season, shows promise. The other corner, Rashean Mathis, has been on the decline since making his only Pro Bowl team in 2006.
The addition of Dawan Landry should improve the safety play, but I don’t expect him to be as effective as he was on a more talented Baltimore defense.
Prediction: 4th Place AFC South – Let me start with this. While I don’t expect the Jags to win the AFC South this year, they could certainly do better than fourth in what should be a tight race. Jacksonville has the worst pass rush in the division and the worst quarterback. These are two things it will have a difficult time overcoming as it looks to make the postseason for the first time since 2007. NFL odds makers have listed the Jaguars at +650 to win the AFC South.
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