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Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions NFL Week 10 Picks & Odds

Written by Jimmy Boyd

This matchup likely doesn’t have too much appeal to the average sports fan with the 0-8 Lions hosting a struggling Jacksonville team which gave previously winless Cincinnati its first win of the season last week. But we’ll tackle it anyway for those who bet on the NFL each week so you can see if there might be any value. The books have the lowly Lions falling to 0-9 by listing them as the 6-point underdog with the total set at 43.5.

This stretch of games was supposed to help the Jaguars get back in the thick of things, but things did not go as planed last week. They lost to winless Cincinnati last week and will try to avoid losing to a second straight winless team when they take on the Lions this weekend.

Jacksonville had high hopes entering this season after advancing to the AFC divisional round of the playoffs last year. The postseason is already starting to look out of reach as the Jags trail division leader Tennessee by five games and are taking advantage of the easiest portion of their schedule. After losing to the Browns 23-17 on October 26th, Jacksonville then fell to the Bengals 21-19 last Sunday. Jacksonville needs to turn a corner this week and it couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to play.

The Lions are are now the league’s only winless team and are off to their worst start since 2001 when they started the year 0-12. Dating back to last season’s second half collapse, Detroit has dropped 15 of its last 16 games. The Lions were in great position to end their losing streak last week in Chicago, but the Bears overcame a 23-13 halftime deficit to beat the Lions 27-23. Detroit has been playing much better football the past four weeks. After getting embarrassed in each of its first four games, the Lions have only lost by an average of 5.3 ppg over their last four.

Jacksonville’s season can be called close but no cigar thus far as the Jags are the only team in the NFL that has had all of its games decided by seven points or less. Unfortunately for the Jags, they have been on the losing end more than the winning end. Last week, QB David Garrard led an 11-play, 73-yard drive that was capped by Maurice Jones-Drew’s 1-yard run with 1:17 to go, bringing Jacksonville within two points. But Garrard’s pass to Jerry Porter on the 2-point conversion try fell incomplete as the Jags knew they had lost another one.

Its lack of success can be attributed to a failed running attack. Jones-Drew has held to only 33 yards on 10 carries against a porous Bengals defense. Here is some food for thought; the Jags are averaging 176.7 yards on the ground in their wins and only 70 in their losses. The key is the ground game and Jacksonville needs to find a way to make it more consistent. A date with Detroit should help the Jags get back on track on the ground. The Lions are the second-worst team in the NFL against the run, giving up 161.8 yards per game. Detroit gave up 117 yards alone to the Bears in the second half last week. My advice to Jacksonville is to keep pounding the football no matter what. If you like Jacksonville to cover the 6-point spread, bet the Jaguars at BetUS.

Detroit’s Dan Orlovsky has a pretty good day against the Bears, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns, but he also had a pair of passes intercepted. Orlovsky did sprain the thumb on his throwing hand in the loss which opens things up for Daunte Culpepper to make his first start of the season.

This past Tuesday, the Lions signed Culpepper to a two-year deal. The former Pro Bowl QB took the snaps Wednesday while Orlovsky watched with a soft cast over his thumb. The Lions have not come out and said who will be starting this week. Culpepper has not been the same since injuring his knee. He was a stud in Minnesota but has since struggled in stints with Oakland and Miami. If you think odds makers are giving Detroit too many points this week, bet the Lions at +6 at BetUS.

Check out all of the best NFL Odds from the top sportsbooks on the web via Jimmy’s live odds page and also be sure to check out Jimmy’s NFL picks this week. You don’t want to miss his 5* NFC North Game of the Year.

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 7, 2008 · Filed Under NFL Betting Articles, News & Previews 

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