Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots Odds

The 7-7 Jacksonville Jaguars take on the 9-5 AFC East leading New England Patriots Sunday in a Week 16 AFC non-division clash. Last week, it was close but no cigar for Jacksonville, which damaged its playoff hopes with a 35-31 loss to Indy. Meanwhile, the Pats took care of Buffalo 17-10 for their 13th straight win over the Bills. These two teams last met in the 2007 season when New England improved to 17-0 with a 31-20 playoff victory. That win marked the fourth straight for the Pats in the series and the seventh in eight all-time meetings. NFL lines makers expect New England to take care of business at home this week, listing the Patriots as an 8-point favorite with the total set at 43.

While Jacksonville Jaguars QB David Garrard has bounced back from a tough 2008 to have a solid season, he has not been captain clutch at the end of games. Each of the last two weeks, Garrard has failed to lead his team to game-winning drives in crunch time. Teams like the Colts and the Saints have been able to win late in games behind well-orchestrated drives by Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and that’s a big reason why those teams are at the top of their respective conferences and why the Jags are fighting for their playoff life. Garrard very well could be asked to win the game in the finals minutes again Sunday.

Jacksonville’s defense has let it down throughout the season. The Jaguars’ 14 sacks are the fewest in the league. Their lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks’ puts their own defensive backfield under tremendous pressure. We saw this last week when Peyton Manning was able to pick on third-year safety Reggie Nelson, among others, in the Jacksonville secondary. It is worth noting that the Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

Tom Brady has looked like Tom Terrific at times this season, but he has also looked like Tom Terrible. Okay, maybe not that bad, but he certainly hasn’t looked like the quarterback that shredded defenses on a consistent basis in the 2007 season very often. In fact, over the last four weeks, Brady has only completed 58.3 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and six interceptions. Brady has two of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in Wes Welker and Randy Moss and he should have the same opportunity as Peyton Manning to torch a Jacksonville secondary that has been susceptible to the big play throughout the season. It is worth noting that the Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.