New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts Spread

The New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts kick off the AFC Wild Card round Saturday night in a rematch of last season’s AFC title game.

After a three-game losing streak, which started in late November, it looked like the Colts might miss out on the postseason. Indy was able to regroup, however, winning four in a row down the stretch to earn yet another playoff berth.

Unlike the Colts, the Jets sputtered down the stretch, losing three of four before finishing the regular season with an impressive 38-7 win over Buffalo.

While neither of these teams quite met expectations this season, both are in the playoffs and both are capable of making lengthy runs once again.

NFL odds makers are expecting a close game, but they have given the edge to Indianapolis. They have ultimately listed the Colts as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 44.5.

If Peyton Manning can stay hot, the Colts have as good a chance as any team in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. A poor three-game stretch, during which Manning threw 11 interceptions, brought the perception that he had a down year. That perception couldn’t be more faulty. In fact, one could argue that Manning actually performed a little better than he did in last year’s MVP campaign, especially considering all the injuries to key receivers.

This season, Manning completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 4,700 yards with 33 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Last season, he completed 68.8 percent of his throws for 4,500 yards with 33 touchdown strikes and 16 picks.

The fact of the matter is, Manning still has it. He enters the postseason having thrown nine touchdown passes with only two interceptions during Indy’s four-game win streak. That could spell bad news for a Jets defense that was carved up by Tom Brady, Ben Roethliberger and Jay Cutler down the stretch.

Manning certainly had no problem picking the Jets apart in last year’s 30-17 win in the AFC title game. He completed 26 of 39 passes for 377 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in that contest.

While the perception surrounding the Colts has been that they’ll go as far as Manning can take them, that may not be true if the defense continues to play at a high level. Indy had one of the worst defenses in the league for most of the season, but it came up big down the stretch. The Colts held their last three opponents to an average of 66.0 yards per game on the ground.

You might recall that New York held a 17-6 lead in the second quarter in last year’s AFC championship. The Jets might have been able to hold onto that lead had running back Shonn Greene not gone down with an injury.

Greene led the Jets through the playoffs with a 135-yard rushing day against the Bengals and a 128-yard day against the Chargers. He was averaging over four yards per carry against Indy before sustaining an injury.

Greene could be the key again. As was the case with Thomas Jones last season, it appears LaDainian Tomlinson is wearing down. Greene looked much fresher in his last game, averaging 5.8 yards per carry against Chicago’s stout run defense. Tomlinson only averaged 2.2 yards per tote in that game.

While Indy has played the run well down the stretch, we can’t discount the whole body of work. The reality is the Colts rank 25th in the league against the run with 127 yards per game allowed. They’ll face a tough task in slowing down New York’s fourth-ranked rushing offense (148.4 yards per game).