2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions

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The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby looks as wide open as ever. With that said, I believe I have identified three horses with an excellent opportunity to win the race. Without any further ado, here are my top three Derby horses.

Win – Take Charge Indy (15/1): Since Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby in 2008, it has been wise to search for value with your Derby-day wagers. We saw Mine That Bird win at 50/1 in 2009, Super Saver at 8/1 in 2010 and Animal Kingdom at 20/1 last year. I think Take Charge Indy offers exceptional value at 15/1 odds.

The son of A.P. Indy, grandson of Seattle Slew and great grandson of Secretariat certainly has pedigree on his side. Plus, we can expect jockey Calvin Borel to get the most out of this horse, just as he did in the Florida Derby.

Borel has been aboard the winning Kentucky Derby horse three times in the past five years (Street Sense 2007, Mine That Bird 2009, Super Saver 2010), and I am expecting him to give Take Charge Indy a good ride after a disappointing tenth-place finish aboard Twice the Appeal last year.

Place – Union Rags (9/2): It’s hard not to like Union Rags to finish in the top three. He’s won four of six career starts while never finishing worst than third.

Like Take Charge Indy, Seattle Slew and Secretariat are a part of his gene pool so the breeding is there.

It’s also nice to know he’ll be mounted by one of the best in Julien Leparoux. This Eclipse Award winner should be very focused after riding odds on favorite Dialed In to an eighth-place finish in last year’s Derby.

My concern with this horse is the Derby traffic. He had a bad trip in the Florida Derby and could very well encounter another one Saturday. Even if he does, he has the speed and the endurance to finish high.

Show – Gemologist (6/1): If you like betting winning horses, this might just be your pony. The son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow has won each of his five career races.

It also bodes well for us that super trainer Todd Pletcher is in his corner. Pletcher broke his Derby skid in 2012 with Super Saver, and I do not expect that to be his only Derby victory. The guy is just too good.

Jockey Javier Castellano may not by quite as accomplished as Borel and Leparoux, but he does have Breeders’ Cup Classic and Preakness Stakes wins under his belt.

Other Contenders

Bodemeister (4/1): Bodemeister could be special, but I do not feel he is showing much value at this price given his inexperience. His Arkansas Derby win was impressive, but no horse since 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a two year old.

Creative Cause (11/1): Creative Cause looks to be the best from the West. He’s won half of his eight career races and hasn’t finished worst than third.

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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