2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Many experts have described this year’s race as being up for grabs, but I believe I have identified the three horses with the best chance to win. Without any further ado, here are my top three horses for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby. Mint Julep’s on me if I hit the trifecta.
Win: Dialed In +350 to win 2011 Kentucky Derby – Dialed In is the only horse in the field with wins in two major races. He was victorious in the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby.
The Florida Derby is widely regarded as the most important of the Kentucky Derby tune-ups. Dialed In rallied from 10 lengths back to run down Shackleford in this year’s Florida Derby, showing the kind of finishing kick that should serve him well at Churchill.
Two of the last five Florida Derby winners (Barbaro 2006, Big Brown 2008) – nearly three – have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Ice Box, who was also trained by Nick Zito, finished a close second to Super Saver in the 2010 Kentucky Derby after winning at Gulfstream.
Zito would have joined fellow Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert as a three-time champ in “the run for the roses”. There’s no need to worry as Dialed In gives him an excellent opportunity to get there this year.
One has to like that this horse has experience at Churchill Downs, where he won his first career start in November. One also has to like his pedigree as a son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, who was sired by 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy. A.P. Indy was a son of 1977 U.S. Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.
Place: Nehro +500 to win 2011 Kentucky Derby – This horse hasn’t won a major prep race, but impressive second place performances in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies have made be a believer. Nehro still looked strong when crossing the finish line only a neck behind in those shorter races, which means he could thrive at the longer Kentucky Derby distance.
Nehro comes out of the Mineshaft line as well and is a half-brother of Dialed In.
Ahmed Zayat caught a bad break last year when clear-cut Derby-favorite Eskendereya was diagnosed with a career-ending injury less than a week before the race. It looks like Nehro might be his redemption horse.
Show: Twice The Appeal +2500 to win 2011 Kentucky Derby – This horse may be peaking at just the right time with a win in the Sunland Derby. Plus, it will be mounted by none other than Calvin Borel on Derby day. Borel’s aggressive riding style has resulted in three Kentucky Derby wins the last four years. That little stat alone has Twice The Appeal showing plenty of appeal at this price.
Borel has proven he can win with underdogs. In the 2009 Kentucky Derby, he rode 50-1 long shot Mine That Bird to an impressive 6 3/4 length victory – the greatest margin of victory in the Derby since 1946. It was the second biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history. Only Donerail had longer odds (91-1) clear back in 1913.
I’m not sure Borel can get Twice The Appeal to the winner’s circle, but I like his chances of cracking the top three.
Past Kentucky Derby Predictions
