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Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Lines & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd on December 9, 2009

The 6-6 Miami Dolphins and the 7-5 Jacksonville Jaguars face off Sunday in a crucial matchup with playoff implications. Last week, Miami rallied to pull off an impressive 22-21 win over division-leading New England. Meanwhile, the Jags held on for a 23-18 victory over division rival Houston. These two teams have not met since the 2006 season when the Jags won 24-10 to take a 3-1 lead in the all-time series. NFL lines makers have listed the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3-point favorites with the total set at 44.

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If the playoffs started today, the Jaguars would be in but they are far from being out of the woods. The good news is they are at home again this week where they have won five straight games.

Mike Sims-Walker has been QB David Garrard’s go-to guy. He has 52 catches for 752 yards and six touchdowns on the season. But veteran wideout Torry Holt has arguably been the most important player to this team. Holt has been a nice complimentary receiver with 44 grabs for 590 yards, but more importantly, he has provided much needed veteran leadership on a very young team. Holt has been to the postseason with the Rams, but many of the young players on the Jags were not a part of the organizations’ 2007 playoff team. Now it’s time for Holt to use his veteran leadership to help guide the Jags to the playoffs.

A couple years back, all that was thought to be standing in the way of the Jags and the AFC South title was a consistent pass rush, and that still may be the case. The Jags went after highly regarded ends Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey to solve the problem, but so far the duo has not performed. They have combined for just one sack this season. If Jacksonville can contain Miami’s running game, it will have an opportunity to go after Chad Henne. At that point, it will be up to Groves and Harvey to finally provide some fireworks. It is worth noting that the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the all-time series. If you like this trend to continue, bet the Jags at -3 at Bodog.

Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano has led his team to a perfect 5-0 record in the month of December in his young career. What that tells me is that his team continues to improve as the season goes on. We know Miami will look to run the football on offense as it averages a strong 150 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. But it will have to be the defense steps up to pull off the upset. The Dolphins are allowing 24.7 points per game and that is too many to be giving up when you’re not an explosive offensive team. If Miami gives up 25 points to Jacksonville Sunday, its chances of picking up a win aren’t very good. While Jacksonville prefers to run the football, it may take its chances through the air against a stingy Miami run defense. That means rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith will have to be up to the challenge. The young corners have continued to improve, but they have still been a liability at times. If Jason Taylor and company are able to put some heat on Garrard, it will go a long way toward helping out the young defensive backs. Taylor has 5.5 sacks on the season and only needs one more to pass the great Derrick Thomas for 11th on the all-time list. It is worth noting that the Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. If you like Miami in the road dog role Sunday, bet the Dolphins at +3 at Bodog.

Beat the books Sunday with expert pro football picks from World Champion Handicapper Jimmy Boyd!

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