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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots NFL Predictions & Betting

Written by Jimmy Boyd

The 3-4 defending AFC East champion Miami Dolphins look to cut into the lead of the 5-2 New England Patriots Sunday. Last week, Miami defeated the New York Jets 30-25 behind two big kickoff returns for touchdowns by Ted Ginn. New England was idle. These two division rivals last met in Week 12 of last season with New England winning 48-28 behind 21 unanswered four quarter points. The Patriots have won four of the last six meetings but Miami owns a 49-38 all-time lead in the series. NFL odds makers expect New England to be hitting on all cylinders following its bye week, listing the Patriots as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 47.

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The Dolphins have won three of four following a slow start with all three of its wins coming against AFC East opponents. In fact, Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano improved to 7-2 against the AFC East with last week’s win over the Jets.

Miami’s Wildcat offense made big noise last season and it was tearing up its opponents in the early part of this season until the Saints figured it out in the second half of a Week 7 loss. The Dolphins did not show much Wildcat last week against the Jets, despite torching them with it in the season’s first meeting. Have they scrapped it all of the sudden? I don’t think so! Miami knew Jets head coach Rex Ryan would be focusing his defensive game plan on stopping the Wildcat so the Dolphins didn’t show it to him much. I must admit, a genius move. I expect it to be back this week as the Phins will have to pull out all the stops to get past the Pats.

For Miami to win this game, it is going to have to put a lot or pressure on Tom Brady. The normally calm and collected Brady has not looked as cool in the pocket at times this season following last year’s serious knee injury. Jason Taylor is showing that he still has some mileage left on his body and his pass rush could be the key to shocking the Pats this week. Taylor enters this week’s contests with 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. He even took a fumble back to the house last week for an NFL-record sixth career fumble return rumble. Taylor is going to need some help from Joey Porter, who has recorded a sack in four straight games against New England, as well. It is worth noting that the Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or more points. If you think odds makers are spotting Miami too many points, bet the Dolphins at +10.5 at Sportsbook.com.

Tom Brady is always a major key to New England’s success, but did you know that the Patriots have won 24 straight regular season games with Junior Seau on the team? You gotta like the experience, leadership, and energy this guy has brought everywhere he has been. While Seau is catching many headlines anymore, New England’s third-year safety Brandon Meriweather is. The secondary figured to be a problem area for the Patriots heading into the season but Meriweather has been up to the task. He came up with two interceptions against the inexperienced Josh Johnson in his last game, returning one for a score, and he’ll be stalking young signal caller Chad Henne this week.

Randy Moss is New England’s big play guy, leading the team in receiving yards, but Wes Welker is critical to Moss’ success and I believe he is more critical to the success of the Patriot offense. Welker leads the NFL with 269 catches since 2007. He keeps the chains moving by finding seams in zone after zone. Eventually teams get sick of giving up all of those underneath routes to him and that’s when Brady finds Moss over the top. It is worth noting that the Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. If you like New England to win big at home Sunday, bet the Patriots at -10.5 at Sportsbook.com.

If you like last week’s 5* NFC Game of the Year winner on the 10.5-point underdog Panthers by 13 points over the Cardinals for a 23-point against the spread blowout, then you’re going to love this week’s 5* Top Play just as much. Don’t miss it in Jimmy’s NFL expert picks package Sunday!

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 4, 2009 · Filed Under NFL Betting Articles, News & Previews

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