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Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers NFL Week 3 Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on September 24, 2009

phins bolts 92409 The 0-2 Miami Dolphins head across the country to take on the 1-1 San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium in a battle of defending division champs. The Dolphins dominated the time of possession against the Colts but were unable to pick up their first win of the season last Monday night. Meanwhile, the Chargers lost a rare home game to the Baltimore Ravens. These teams last met just under a year ago with the Dolphins coming out on top 17-10. Miami has won seven straight in the series, but NFL odds makers have that streak coming to an end Sunday, listing the San Diego Chargers as the 6-point favorite with the total set at 44.

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This series has been all Miami in recent history and QB Chad Pennington has also had the upper hand on the Bolts with a 3-0 career mark against them. Miami may have lost the game last week, but you have to like just about everything they did, especially on offense. Miami torched the Chargers on the ground and used its wildcat formation very effectively. Teams have had trouble slowing down tailback Ronnie Brown, who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. I expect the Dolphins to be able to move the football on San Diego so this one could come down to Miami doing a better job of preventing big plays. It was Indy’s big plays that beat the Dolphins in Week 2. It is worth noting that the Dolphins are 4-0 against the number in their last 4 meetings in San Diego and 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a road underdog. If you think Miami can bounce back from last week’s heartbreaking loss, bet the Dolphins at +6 at BetUS.

Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest. While backup Darren Sproles has done a pretty nice job filling in, he isn’t the between-the-tackles runner who can help fix San Diego’s red zone struggles. In fact, San Diego failed to score a touchdown on any of its five trips to the red zone last week. The Bolts will have to find a way to cash in on their opportunities against a Dolphins team which showed that it can keep the ball nearly the entire game.

The Chargers may choose to take a page out of Indy’s book to try to beat the Dolphins through the air. Vincent Jackson has developed into a strong deep threat for QB Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense and he will be the next wideout to try to carve up the Miami secondary.

Defensively, you have to shut down the run when you are playing the Dolphins or they will keep running it down your throat all day long. Pennington is the most accurate passer in NFL history, but I’d still rather take my chances with him beating me through the air before I would give up over five yards a pop to Ronnie Brown. It is worth noting that the Chargers are 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and the Dolphins are only 1-9-2 against the number in their last 12 games in September. If you like San Diego to bounce back strong with a convincing home win this week, bet the Chargers at -6 at BetUS.

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