Michigan State at Notre Dame Lines
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish try to avoid starting the season 0-3 as they host the 2-0 Michigan State Spartans on Saturday afternoon (3:30 PM ET). Looking at our latest odds on the game, the Irish are 4.5-point favorites and the over/under is set at 51.5 points.
Michigan State
The Spartans destroyed Florida Atlantic last week 44-0, this coming a week after defeating FCS school Youngstown State 28-6 in their season opener. Because Michigan State came out in those games and did exactly what they were supposed to do (win convincingly), these aren’t considered impressive wins, but it’s hard to knock anyone for starting 2-0, regardless of the opponents.
The Spartans averaged over 400 yards in each of their first two games. Some of the most impressive offensive stats come from quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has completed an eye-popping 81% of his passes this season for 405 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cousins must be licking his chops after seeing Michigan’s passing game rack up 338 yards on this Irish secondary.
Cousins’s numbers are impressive, but Michigan State’s running attack sets him up for a lot of success. The Spartans choose to run on more than 60% of their plays and so far they have been relatively successful, averaging about 4.0 yards per carry.
Defensively, Michigan State knows that Notre Dame is going to throw the ball. Stopping this offense is no easy task, but the Irish have been careless with the ball so far this season, leading me to believe the Spartans will have plenty of opportunities for potential turnovers.
Notre Dame
It’s been a rough start for the Fighting Irish, albeit against two pretty good opponents. Expectations for this program are always high, but this season was the one many thought Notre Dame could be back in the spotlight. It’s unlikely this team is a national title contender, but there is still plenty season to be played and this squad has shown signs of being a very, very good team.
If you just looked at Notre Dame’s statistics, you would have a hard time believing this is an 0-2 team. They’ve averaged 510 yards of offense (157 rushing, 353 passing), while allowing 353 yards per game defensively. The difference has been the turnover battle. The Irish already have ten turnovers this year, while they’ve taken the ball away just three times.
On defense the secondary needs to step up after a poor performance last week. The Irish have done well at stopping the run so far this season, which will also be critical in this game, but preventing big plays from Cousins and the Michigan State passing game would give Notre Dame a clear upper hand.
Predictions
If we are strictly speaking about offensive numbers, Notre Dame has the clear edge. The only real issue for the Irish has been turning the ball over, something they are all-too aware of. Michigan State has looked good so far this season, but it’s really hard to tell how good this team really is considering the competition they’ve been up against. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has two games against excellent opponents under its belt. Two losses, yes, but Irish looked like the better team in both games if you take turnovers out of the equation. Michigan State has forced just one turnover so far this season and I have to think Notre Dame’s primary objective will be to be careful with the ball. This is a must-win game for the Fighting Irish and I think they’ll be ready to earn their first victory of the year. Notre Dame 28, Michigan State 14