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Michigan State vs. North Carolina: NCAA Championship Preview & Odds

Written by Jimmy Boyd

NCAA title 4509 Michigan State will face off with North Carolina Monday, April 6 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan for a chance to make history as the 2009 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament champion. Michigan State relied once again on its stingy defense and also got a nice lift from lots of Spartans fans on hand to upset No. 1 seed Connecticut Saturday evening. The Tar Heels continued their assault on the field by punishing yet another opponent by double digits. In this article, I’ll break down what each team needs to do to cut down the nets. Odds makers have listed North Carolina as the 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 152.

Michigan State has met every challenge in this tournament, conquering the most challenging path to the championship game I’ve seen in quite some time. After surviving nail biters with USC and defending champion Kansas, the Spartans took down two of the Big East’s No. 1 seeds, Louisville and UConn. Tom Izzo’s club executed its game plan to a tee in each of its last two games, slowing things down on offense against Louisville and speeding things up against the Huskies. The one constant throughout the tournament for the Spartans has been its suffocating defense, and they are going to need one more superb defensive effort if they hope to conquer the mighty Tar Heels. Michigan State had held each of its first four tournament opponents under 70 points before allowing 73 against UConn. The Huskies likely wouldn’t have reached the 70 mark if Michigan State had chosen to challenge the Huskies in a half court battle, but Tom Izzo knew that strategy was not a winning one. I expect Michigan State’s game plan against the Tar Heels to largely resemble the one it implemented against Louisville as the Spartans do not want to get into a track meet with Carolina. If Carolina does have a weakness though, it is on the defensive end, although it didn’t show it against Villanova, so Michigan State will look to attack in transition when the opportunity presents itself. If you thought the Michigan State crowd was going nuts against Connecticut, wait until you hear them in the championship game. It will be important for the Spartans to get out of the gate quickly, like they did against UConn, to get the crowd roaring early because Carolina is going to try to take the wind out of their sails. If you think the Spartans can pull off the shocker, bet Michigan State at +7.5.

After being denied in last year’s Final Four matchup with Kansas, there was no doubt in my mind that the Tar Heels would not let Villanova stand in their way. North Carolina jumped on the Wildcats early and never looked back. North Carolina shot extremely well from three point range in its semifinal matchup and that will play a big role again as the Heels offense is next to unstoppable when the shots are falling from the perimeter. Michigan State is a physical team that will foul you instead of allowing easy baskets so it will be crucial that North Carolina knock down its free throws. That was an area where Connecticut faltered. North Carolina does not want to get trapped in Michigan State’s half court game like Louisville did. The Spartans are not an explosive enough offensive team to run and gun with Ty Lawson and company so it will be important for the Heels to force the issue. Just as it has been throughout the tournament, the X-factor is Ty Lawson. If he takes care of the ball, gets in the lane, and finds his teammates, North Carolina is nearly unstoppable. I know the Tar Heels clubbed Michigan State in this building early in the season, but there’s no way they will be overlooking the Spartans here. If you like the Tar Heels to add another championship banner to the rafters, bet North Carolina at -7.5.

Jimmy Boyd was a perfect 2-0 in the Final Four to improve to 19-6 with his college basketball picks in the Big Dance. Do your NCAA basketball betting with Jimmy Boyd on the NCAA Championship Game for another big winner against the college basketball odds.

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