Minnesota at Wisconsin Football Odds & Picks
The 7-3 Minnesota Golden Gophers try to get back on the right track after back to back losses. They’ve have work to do on the road, however, against a Wisconsin team desperately trying to get their 6th win of the season to be eligible for a bowl bid. It’s been a disappointing year for the Badgers, who were ranked in the top 25 in all of the preseason polls, but who have struggled, even at home, ever since their loss to Penn State. Wisconsin has won 11 of the past 10 match ups and 6 in a row at home and they are 13.5 point favorites against Minnesota this week with the total set at 46.5 points.
Minnesota’s offense isn’t going to wow anyone, but they are certainly efficient. They’ve given the ball away just 12 times in 10 games this year. That’s especially impressive considering that 226 of their 343 total yards per game come through the air. The key player for the Gophers is quarterback Adam Weber, who is completing just over 65% of his passes this year. Minnesota does have a key injury on the offensive side of the ball this week, however, as their leading receiver, Eric Decker will be out with an ankle injury.
The defensive unit for Minnesota has given up 370 yards per game, but they’ve managed to minimize the damage, allowing only 19 point per game from those yards. Defense has been the major problem in their last two weeks, both losses, particularly against Michigan, a game in which Minnesota gave up over 230 yards on the ground. It will be interesting to see how they recover this week against a very capable Wisconsin offense. Oddsmakers don’t think the Gophers will travel well this week as Minnesota is a 13.5 point underdog.
It’s hard to see how Wisconsin has only managed a 5-5 record when you look at their offense. The Badgers are racking up an impressive 407 total yards per game, including 224 yards on the ground. Last week Wisconsin had three running backs go over 100 yards with David Gilreath, P.J. Hill, and John Clay. Hill is the leader on offense, he has 845 yards and 9 TDs, but the other two backs are a nice compliment. The passing game for the Badgers simply isn’t there, but they haven’t really needed QB Dustin Sherer to perform with the success in the running game. Wisconsin is just 5-5, but the Badgers are 13.5 point favorites at home this week.
Defense may be where the problem has been for Wisconsin this year, but their numbers certainly don’t show it. They are giving up only 24 points per game on 320 yards per game. The real problem for the Badgers has been getting up for big games. They’ve lost to some of the better teams in the Big 10 (save Michigan), but have played much better in the second half of this season. They’ll need to be strong against the pass this week because Minnesota will rely mostly on their air assault to move the ball.
Minnesota is trying to avoid losing their 3 game in a row after losses to Northwestern and Michigan. The odds are stacked against them, though. They are on the road and playing a Wisconsin team that is catching its stride. Wisconsin needs to win out to get a sniff at a bowl appearance. I would expect a heavy dose of the running game again this week, it will be up to the Minnesota defense to stop it, but it could be tough going for the Gophers in Madison Saturday.
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