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2009 Cotton Bowl Picks – Mississippi v. Texas Tech Football Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd

cotton-bowl

Texas Tech can chalk up its winningest season in school history with a victory in the Cotton Bowl, but in order to do so, it will have to beat an under the radar Ole Miss team which has wins over the past two national champions this season. Football odds makers still like the Red Raiders to get the job done, listing Texas Tech as the 4-point favorite with the total set at 69.5.

There has been plenty of debate over what is the best non-BCS bowl and this one certainly could be it. Odds makers are expecting a shootout with the total near 70 points as the No. 8 Red Raiders battle it out with the No. 20 Rebels in the 73rd and final Cotton Bowl at Cotton Bowl Stadium.

Texas Tech is more than worthy of a BCS bowl berth after finishing 11-1 and tying for first place with Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12 South with a 7-1 record. Because no conference can have more than two teams in BCS bowl games, the Red Raiders are this season’s snub. That should not take away from what Tech accomplished this season. The Red Raiders were ranked as high as No. 2 in the country, defeated a then-No. 1 ranked Texas team and a then-No. 8 Oklahoma State team a week later.

While standout QB Graham Harrell would have liked a chance to end his career in Miami in the BCS Championship Game, it is a special consolation for him to play his final college game in Dallas, just 35 miles from his hometown of Ennis, Texas.

Harrell will be trying to lead Texas Tech to its highest win total in the program’s 84-year history. The Red Raiders were 11-1 in 1953 and 1973. One of the most prolific passers in college football history will also have the honor of playing in the final Cotton Bowl at Cotton Bowl Stadium before the game is moved to the Dallas Cowboys’ new $1 billion-plus stadium next year.

Harrell is coming off another season worthy of Heisman Trophy honors, although it did not pan out that way. He ranked second in the nation in passing yards with 4,747, and tied for fourth in touchdowns with 41. This game will give the star a chance to improve on his Big 12 records. He is the Big 12 career leader in yards with 15,429 and completions with 1,367. He could also become the NCAA all-time leader in touchdown passes as he need only two to surpass Colt Brennan’s record of 131. Harrell has been as good as advertised in each of his last two bowl games. He threw two touchdown strikes and ran for a third in a 44-41 come from behind win over Minnesota in the 2006 Insight Bowl. He then, threw for three touchdowns in last year’s Gator Bowl win over Virginia.

We expect Harrell to be looking wide receiver Michael Crabtree’s way early and often. Crabtree will get to play this game in his hometown of Dallas. Highly touted as the best receiver in the nation, he grabbed 93 balls for 1,135 yards and 18 scores this season. His standout season earned him the honor of becoming the first repeat winner of the Biletnikoff Award as the country’s top receiver. If you like the high-powered Red Raider attack to win a third straight bowl game under Harrell and cover the spread in the process, bet Texas Tech at -4 at Bookmaker and receive a 20% cash sign up bonus.

Ole Miss comes into this matchup with plenty of momentum on its side, having won five straight, including impressive season-ending wins over LSU and Mississippi State by a combined score of 76-13. The Rebels were a huge surprise in head coach Houston Nutt’s first year, going from winning no games in the SEC last season, to beating a Florida team that will be playing for the national title. Even in its losses, the Rebels were highly competitive, losing by a touchdown or less in each of its four losses this season.

This marks Ole Miss’ first bowl appearance since Eli Manning led it to a Cotton Bowl win over Oklahoma State in 2004. Coach Nutt is no stranger to this bowl either, having led Arkansas there in 1999 and 2001. He earned another trip to Dallas last season after beating LSU (eventual national champs) in the last game of the regular season but did not coach in the game after resigning.

The big question will be if Ole Miss’s defense, which only allowed 17.8 ppg this season, will be able to slow down a Texas Tech offense which is averaging 44.6 points.

Ole Miss’ offense flies under the radar. Led by Jevan Snead, the Rebs’ balanced attack averages nearly 31 ppg and ranks third in the SEC in rushing and fourth in passing.

In Ole Miss’ favor might be the fact that Tech is 0-3 in the Cotton Bowl while the Rebs are 2-1. If you like the Rebels to pull off the upset, bet Mississippi at +4 at Bookmaker.

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on December 31, 2008 · Filed Under College Football Betting Articles, News & Previews 

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