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Betting the MLB Playoffs

Written by Jimmy Boyd

As the dog days of summer start to wind down and football betting starts in full force, that means the baseball regular season is drawing to an end and it’s time for betting the MLB playoffs. If you have been following the baseball picks released by Jimmy Boyd this summer, then you already have a hefty bankroll in place and are just getting ready for some more money to roll in. With football starting, many bettors tend to ignore the opportunities that present themselves come playoff time, but that is a mistake in our book. In the regular season it is easier for average bettors to take heavy favorites and have the losses even out, but during the playoffs the time to recover is shorter, so you have to be more on top of your game. That is why having a quality sports handicapper on your side like Jimmy Boyd will leave you with a better chance of beating the baseball sportsbooks. This is a completely different animal and if you don’t get amped up like the players then you won’t be ending up on top. Keep yourself in the black by knowing the differences between regular and post-season baseball betting will help keep you from making the same mistakes as average bettors do.

The first and easiest to note is the length of the series changes. During the regular season teams play three or four game sets, but in the playoffs it’s either a best-of-five or best-of-seven. Of course, if you didn’t know that then you should probably stay away from the baseball odds. With this change in series length, managerial strategies, pitching rotations, and the approaches that hitters take will all be different. There are some players and coaches who come through when the pressure is on and some who don’t so the ability to predict who can make the adjustments and who can handle the added heat.

Another thing you have to look at is how quickly teams bounce back after a loss. You need a short memory in baseball, but in the playoffs it’s even more important. Don’t factor in a big, runaway win the night before too much into tonight’s game, because that team that got whipped will most likely come back with a close win the next night. Baseball is less about momentum and more about who is better. This lack of emotion shows when a star pitcher takes the mound on the road and calmly dominates the home hitters. The only advantage the home team has is being able to hit last. This is shown by the 47.5% win percentage on the road during the playoffs.

Besides the myth of home field advantage there is also a One-Run rule, which basically states that if teams are evenly matched that you will see more one-run games in the postseason. During the regular season, nearly 1 in 4 games are decided by one run, but in the postseason only around 27.5% of the games are. That means take the run line if you like the favorite, but stay away from the underdogs on the run line. One thing to consider though, is the number of one run games increases as the postseason progresses, so in the Wild Card round only 19% of the games are settle by a run, but in the World Series that number climbs to 43%.

Along with the One-Run myth, there is also the widely held consensus in the general public that playoff runs are hard to come by. During the regular season the totals for the games will most likely be either 9 or 9.5, and only 42% of playoff games get into the double digits. This means that the under is showing considerable value come playoff time. However, the reason that most of the games see so few runs is that the quality of pitching is a lot better, and during the regular season when the big guns are on the hill then the totals are lowered. We don’t only look at good pitchers, but also on hard throwers. Power pitchers that strike people out tend to have a better record in the playoffs, guys like Schilling or Clemens, Johnson or Beckett. The beautiful thing about the playoffs is that you will find guys like that at underdog value when they are on the road taking on another quality starter.

Remember that there are key differences between the regular season and post-season, but also keep in mind that the beginning of the playoffs is extremely different than World Series betting.

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on March 17, 2008 · Filed Under Baseball Betting Articles

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