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Home » If you’ve never bet on the Big Dance before, Jimmy has jotted down some
NCAA tournament handicapping tips that will help you cash in on more of your
wagers this March Madness season.
First off, money management is critical. If you have been using a money
management system throughout the season, stick with it. Don’t just raise your
bets because the games are bigger in hype. If you don’t currently have a money
management system, you should look into finding one. Here’s what often happens.
Bettors will get down big the first day of the tournament and then they will
double down the next day to try to get it all back. Unlike the Super Bowl, which
is just one game, or even the NBA Finals or World Series, which could go seven,
the NCAA tournament is a marathon and not a sprint. There are large quantities
of games spread out over three weeks. Make a little each day and you’ll have a
nice chunk of change at the end of it.
Players also go the other way. They get on a roll and then they start betting
more. If you up the ante too much, you’ll end up giving it all back. We
recommend sticking to your system through and through.
When you bet the NCAA tourney, understand that high profile favorites are often
overvalued by the oddsmakers in the early rounds when they take on smaller
conference schools. Oddsmakers haven’t handicapped many non-conference games
since early in the season and they haven’t handicapped many games at all with
such a large discrepancy in the level of talent in some cases. Lines are often
loose in the first and second round games giving us an opportunity to find some
live underdogs. Also, remember that these smaller schools have nothing to lose
against the high profile giants. Those teams which can shoot lights out from the
perimeter are always a good underdog play in the early rounds. Our best advice
right now is to start looking at some of the mid-major and minor conference
teams which you feel will have a shot to go dancing and learn them inside and
out so you won’t have as much work to do when the brackets come out.
Another thing to look for is how teams finish their seasons. If a team comes in
on a hot streak having just won its conference tournament, you may want to look
at its possibilities of remaining hot in the tourney. It can be a smart play to
go against bubble teams which have skidded down the stretch and sneaked there
way in because of quality earlier wins earlier in the season. The “what have you
done for me lately” strategy can be very effective.
Look for schools which will more or less be playing home games with the way the
seeding works out. These schools will be more comfortable getting to play close
to home with a large fan base. Home court advantage is bigger in college hoops
than any other sport in terms of handicapping the point spread.
Great defensive teams are also great bets. Especially is these teams are healthy
dogs. How well teams score always seems to weigh heavier in the minds of
oddsmakers and many times we have taken advantage by choosing defensive teams to
do our damage.
We hope you’ll find Jimmy’s handicapping tips useful. You can expect Mr. Boyd to
be exercising them to perfection from mid-March to the beginning of April during
the NCAA Tournament. It won't take long before you know who to trust for the
most March Madness winners this season.
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