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Home » Jimmy Boyd has taken the time to research some NCAA tournament trends
that will give you a better chance at winning your tournament bracket this year.
While I’m sure you all know to have a 12 seed picked to beat a five seed in your
bracket, this article goes a little bit more in depth to give you a better
understanding of where the advantages lie.
Here’s some food for thought that just might surprise you. Only five teams,
since the beginning of the seeding process, have entered the Big Dance ranked
number one in at least one poll and went on to cut down the nets (Kentucky 1978,
North Carolina 1982, Duke 1992, UCLA 1995, Michigan State 2000, Duke 2001). So
you might want to think twice before automatically penciling in the nation’s
number one as your Final Four winner. Also, since the NCAA started seeding teams
in 1979, the title game has featured two number one seeds only five times.
Again, putting two number ones in the championship game should not be a given.
However, you can be confident that at least one number one seed will make the
Final Four. Only two times has a number one seed failed to make the Final Four.
That happened in 1980 and again in 2006. Also, you favorite lovers may want to
consider that, since the expansion to 64 teams, there has never been a case
where all four number ones advanced to the Final Four.
We all know it’s important to pick some live dogs when filling out our brackets,
but we don’t want to pick the number 16 seed over the number one seed upset as a
16 has never pulled it off. Number one seeds are 92-for-92 since 1985 when the
tourney expanded to 64 teams. 15 seeds have knocked off number two seeds four
times, but this is not a high percentage play. 14 seeds have beaten three seeds
15 times since 1985 and two 14 seeds have gone on to the Sweet 16 (Cleveland
State 1986, Chattanooga 1997). 18 times a 13 seed has upset a four seed in the
first round. 29 times a 12 seed has upset a five seed, which is the same amount
of times as an 11 has upset a six. So, there is a 32% chance of a 12 upsetting a
five and also an 11 beating a six this year. 35 times a 10 seed has come through
against a seven. The nine versus eight game can be hard to pick, but maybe this
will help. The number nine seed actually holds a 50 to 42 advantage. So you may
want to look to take at least two nine seeds over eights in the first round.
If you’re looking to pick Cinderalla’s, the furthest a 12 seed has made it is
the Elite Eight (Missouri 2002). Two 11 seeds have made the Final Four (LSU
1986, George Mason 2006). And an eight seed is the lowest seed to reach the
championship game. UCLA did it in 1980 and Villanova won it all as an eight seed
in 1985.
Hopefully these trends will give you a little bit better idea where the
percentages lie when filling out your NCAA tournament bracket this March.
Other articles about the NCAA Tournament:
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