Nevada at California Spread

Written by -

The California Golden Bears will be looking for a little revenge when they host the Nevada Wolf Pack Saturday. Nevada won 52-31 when these schools last met in 2010.

Odds makers expect Cal, who leads the all-time series 22-2-1, to have the revenge. They have listed the Bears as an 11-point favorite with the total set at 55.

Cal:

The Golden Bears finished the 2011 season with a winning record (7-6), but they are far from satisfied. The program has been very mediocre in recent seasons. It hasn’t been nationally ranked since 2009 and hasn’t finished a season in the AP Top 25 since 2006.

It hasn’t been the defense letting the team down. Cal led the Pac-12 in total defense for a second straight season in 2011. It only allowed 332.9 yards per game last year.

The defense has kept the Bears in games while the offense has struggled, but the defense may not be as equipped to carry the load in 2012.

Gone is Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Mychal Kendricks and his running mate D.J. Holt. The Bears also lost both starting defensive ends and both starting safeties.

If an offense that ranked eighth in the Pac-12 in both scoring (28.3 points per game) and total offense (401.5 yards per game) is going to carry its own weight, it’s going to need more consistent play from quarterback Zach Maynard, who completed 57 percent of his passes for 2,990 yards with 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season.

Maynard usually finds success when throwing in the direction of his half-brother Keenan Allen, who caught 98 passes for 1,343 yards and six touchdowns. However, Allen will be heavily blanketed this season, which means another reliable target must emerge. That target could be Bryce Treggs, the son of former Cal receiver Brian Treggs.

Nevada:

The Wolf Pack are hoping to put an end to an ugly trend Saturday. Consider that they are 0-10 in season openers against BCS conference opponents and have lost these games by an average of 30.2 points. This could be the year they get off the snide as their Pistol offense could find success against an inexperienced Cal defense.

Nevada racked up 497 yards of offense, 316 of those on the ground, when it defeated the Bears two years ago. Quarterback Cody Fajardo may not be Colin Kaepernick, but he’s still pretty darn good. Fajardo rushed for 694 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2011 and passed for 1,707 yards and six scores with six picks.

Fajardo will do his best to keep the Cal defense off balance, but the Nevada defense must hold up on its end of the bargain in order to pull off the upset.

The stop unit ranked second in the WAC in both total and scoring defense in 2011 with 369.2 yards and 25.2 points allowed per game, but those numbers were only good for 52nd and 58th, respectively, on a national scale.

The defensive line is an area of concern as the unit only returns nine career starts and lost top performer Brett Roy to graduation. This group could have its hands full trying to slow down Cal tailback Isi Sofele, who rushed for 1,322 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

Betting Trends:

The Golden Bears are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, including 4-0 against the number in its last four home games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. The Wolf Pack finished last season on a 1-5-1 against the spread slide but are 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven games as an underdog.

There are a couple strong trends in support of the over. Cal is 9-0 over in its last nine games as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more. Nevada is 9-2 over in its last 11 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more.

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
Connect with the author via: Twitter - Google+
WordPress › Error

There has been a critical error on this website.

Learn more about troubleshooting WordPress.