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Nevada at Fresno State Football Odds & Predictions

Written by Steve Janus

In a week with at least one college football game on every day of the week, Friday the Nevada Wolfpack visit the Fresno State Bulldogs in Western Athletic Conference action. Fresno State is coming off of a very disappointing loss last week to Louisiana Tech. The loss puts them at 5-3 on the season, which still gives them a great chance at getting into a bowl game if they can pick up at least one more victory. 4-4 Nevada is fresh off of a bye week. The break couldn’t come soon enough for the Wolfpack, who have lost 2 of their last three games, falling to just 2-2 in conference play. The current odds on the game are Fresno State -1.5 with the total set at 71 points.

Nevada comes into Friday’s game with the 2nd best rushing offense in the nation. They’ve been successful on the ground with the combination of running back Vai Taua and quarter back Colin Kaepernick. Combined the two have scored 22 TDs on the ground and have obviously racked up some impressive yardage. Kaepernick is the driver of the Wolfpack’s offense. Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, he’s a threat whenever he’s on the field. The Nevada QB is currently ranked 16th in the nation in total offense per game with a little over 284 yards per game. Those are impressive numbers, but Kaepernick hadn’t done it all on his own, his team has over 514 yards of total offense per game.

Defensively, the Wolfpack have struggled with stopping the pass, however, they may be a victim of the WAC, which is a pass-first style conference. Nevada is giving up 327 yards of passing offense per game, certainly nothing to be excited about. The rushing defense appears to have picked up some of the secondary’s slack, however, allowing just 69.5 rushing yards per game this year. Again, this is probably due more to the lack of rushing attempts than the power of the rushing defense, but if teams haven’t been trying to exploit a weakness in the ground defense, it probably isn’t there. SportsBook.com has the best line on the game with Nevada +1.5.

As previously mentioned, Frenso State suffered a very disheartening loss last week. This was a game they were expected to win, but nothing went their way. Friday they will be looking to put that game behind them and looking forward to the possibility of playing in a bowl game this year. With just one more win the Bulldogs will become eligable, but they surely want to make a better impression than winning the bear minimum. This year Fresno State has found an impressive balance in their offense with running back Ryan Matthew and quarterback Tom Brandstater. Both have the ability to take control of the game, but more than likely they will use an equal dose of both to try and get the job done this week.

On the other side of the ball, Fresno has much to improve on. They are one of the least aggressive teams in the nation, ranking near the bottom of all of Division I Football in tackels for loss and sacks per game. There are concerns this week against a talented Nevada rushing attack as Fresno hasn’t had much success in stopping the run this year. The pass defense has been solid, however, so if the Bulldogs can make stops on first and second down, they can rely on their secondary to come through on those crucial third-and-long situations. BetUs.com has the best line on the home team Friday with Fresno State -1.5.

Nevada should benefit from the bye week and Fresno will benefit from playing in Bulldog Staduim. The real question here is whether or not Frensno’s biggest weakness (rushing defense) can match up at all with Nevada’s biggest strength (rushing offense). It should be a competitive game as both teams are fighting every week to get one win closer to a bowl bid.

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