New England Patriots at Denver Broncos NFL Week 5 Odds & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd on October 8, 2009

pats broncs 10809 The 3-1 New England Patriots head to the Mile High City looking to hand the 4-0 Broncos their first loss of the season this Sunday. Last week, the Patriots pulled even with the Jets in the AFC East with a 27-21 win over the Ravens while the Broncos overcame a 10-point deficit to defeat the Cowboys 17-10 to gain a two game lead in the AFC West. These teams last met in Week 7 last year with the Patriots rolling 41-7. But this series has been all Denver with the Broncos winning five of the last seven meetings to take a 26-16 lead in the all-time series. NFL odds make expect New England to win this year’s meeting too, listing the Patriots as 3-point favorites with the total set at 41.

Looking for a reliable house to bet on the NFL this season? Bet your NFL picks at BetUS and get a special $500 match bonus!

Most folks consider Reggie Jackson Mr. October, but Tom Brady can make a case for the nickname as well. Since 2006, Brady is a perfect 10-0 in the month. If he wants to continue his October winning streak, he’s going to have to start stretching the field with wide receiver Randy Moss again. Moss is averaging a career-low 11.4 yards per catch, but that isn’t entirely his fault. When Wes Welker was out in Weeks 2 and 3, Moss took over a lot of Welker’s underneath pass patterns. The result was 14 catches but only 140 yards. With Welker back, Moss can go back to running his home run routes than he has become so recognized for. Moss ranks second in the history of the NFL with 61 100-yard receiving games. Only Jerry Rice has had more (76). If the Patriots aren’t able to start stretching the field, the running game is going to be inconsistent. The Patriots offense is clearly at its best when it poses a running threat.

I was not impressed with New England’s defense at all in its Week 1 win against Buffalo, but I have been each of the last two weeks. It will be interesting to see how Denver reacts to New England’s many blitz packages. It is worth noting that the Patriots are 20-6-1 against the spread in their last 27 games in October. If you like New England to hand Denver its first loss of the season, bet the Patriots at -3 at BetUS.

While Broncos QB Kyle Orton’s name is never mentioned with the elite QB’s in the NFL, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he is 25-12 in his career as a starter. There’s nothing flashy about Orton, but he has been a very good game manager for Denver this season, completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 906 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He was 20 for 29 for 243 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas last week. It doesn’t hurt when you have weapons like Brandon Marshall either. He is the type of player who has the ability to make the Patriots pay if they leave him in single coverage in a blitz package. Marshall and head coach Josh McDaniels did not see eye to eye in the preseason, causing Marshall to be suspended, but I’d say they are getting along just fine after the game-winning touchdown catch he had last week. If New England’s 11th ranked run defense is able to limit the Broncos on the ground, Denver will need Marshall to be the star again. It is worth noting that the Broncos are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games as a home underdog. If you like Denver in the home dog role this week, bet the Broncos at +3 at BetUS.

Put your trust in the NFL expert picks of world champion handicapper Jimmy Boyd for a big Sunday on the gridiron!

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in: