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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins NFL Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd

jets phins 101009 The 3-1 New York Jets take on the 1-3 Miami Dolphins in a Week 5 AFC East Division battle on ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Last week, the Jets came back down to earth with rookie QB Mark Sanchez committing four turnovers in a 24-10 loss to New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Dolphins got in the win column for the first time this season with an impressive 38-10 rout of Buffalo. These teams last met in Week 17 of last season when Miami’s 24-17 victory earned the AFC East crown. But this matchup has been all New York of late with the Jets winning eight of the last 10 meetings to take a 46-40-1 lead in the all-time series. NFL odds makers have listed the New York Jets as the 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 36.

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The biggest question surrounding this Monday night contest is how the Jets, and particularly Mark Sanchez, will respond after their first loss of the season. Through the first three games Sanchez could basically do no wrong and he probably thought the transition to the NFL was going to be easy. Then, he got initiated by the Saints last week. You can bet that the Dolphins will be looking to bring the heat this week to rattle the rookie again. And that could be where running back Thomas Jones fits into the mix. Jones is coming off a career year, but he is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry through the first four games. The guy is a warrior who can help the Jets win ugly games. In fact, he averages 102.6 rushing yards per game when he gets at least 20 totes. But getting on track this week could be difficult against a Dolphins defense which ranks second in the NFL against the run.

The Jets can play some defense of their own, ranking third in the NFL in scoring defense with a 14.3 points per game allowed average. They must be ready to battle in the trenches against one of the NFL’s best running teams. It is worth noting that the Jets are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 meetings in Miami. If you like New York to bounce back strong this week, bet the Jets at -1.5 at BetUS.

By now, we know what Miami is going to do offensively. They are going to try to control the clock by running the football in a variety of ways. And the Dolphins have one of the best running back duos in the league to carry out the game plan. Ricky Davis and Ronnie Brown have combined for 617 yards and six scores. Both backs are averaging five yards per carry or better. Ronnie Brown gets more of the totes and is averaging 108.7 yards per game on the ground.

With the total set at just 36, the books are expecting a defensive battle and Miami has the defense to tango with Rex Ryan’s much talked about unit. While Miami is one of the best in the NFL against the run, it can rush the passer too with Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. Jason Taylor may be returning to form after a two-sack performance last week against the Bills. Joey Porter is one of the most consistent pass rushers in the NFL. In fact, he is the only player in the league with five or more sacks each year since 2000 for a total of 83. It is worth noting that the Jets are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a road favorite and just 4-11-1 against the number in their last 16 games versus a team with a losing record. If you like these trends to continue, bet the Dolphins at +1.5 at BetUS.

Jimmy Boyd cashed in last Monday night with Brett Favre and the Vikings. Make sure you consult his world champion NFL expert picks for another big Monday night winner this week!

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