2012 New York Mets Predictions
The New York Mets were on the verge of winning a World Series title in 2006. They won the NL East with 97 victories that year and took the St. Louis Cardinals to seven games in the NLCS. The Mets have failed to build on that season, though. They still appeared close to contending in 2007 and 2008, winning 88 and 89 games respectively to finish second in the division both years. However, the have taken a major step back the last three seasons with fourth place finishes each year.
Projected Pitching
Starting rotation: Johan Santana (L) – The Mets desperately need Santana to be healthy and effective this season after he missed all of 2011 with shoulder problems. The two-time Cy Young Award winner must pitch like an ace if New York hopes to surprise in the East.
Mike Pelfrey (R) – The ninth overall selection in the 2005 is coming off a down year. After three straight seasons with at least 10 wins, he went just 7-13 with an ERA of 4.74.
Jonathon Niese (L) – The Mets are waiting for a breakout season from Niese. That’s how talented they believe he is and why they didn’t trade him when teams came calling this offseason. He went 11-11 with a 4.40 ERA last year.
R.A. Dickey (R) – The knuckleballer was superb in 2011. He only won eight games due to a lack of run support but logged 208.2 innings and posted a 3.28 ERA.
Dillon Gee (R) – He was catching plenty of headlines early last season when he got off to a 7-0 start but hitters eventually figured him out. He ended up 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA.
Closer: Frank Francisco (R) – He saved 17 games last season, which was good enough to earn him a two-year, $12 million deal.
Projected Lineup
Josh Thole (Catcher) – Thole is a very mediocre backstop. He threw out just 21 percent of base stealers and hit .268 in 2011.
Ike Davis (First Base) – Davis, who batted .264 with 19 home runs and 71 RBIs as a rookie in 2010, looked like he might be headed to the All-Star game before he collided with David Wright and missed the final five months of the season with an ankle injury. The Mets will be happy to have him back in the lineup.
Daniel Murphy (Second Base) – After batting .320 in 109 games last season, the Mets will give him the opportunity to be the everyday second baseman.
David Wright (Third Base) – Nagging back problems were part of the reason Wright posted career lows in batting average (.254) and slugging percentage (.427). In order to contend in the East, the Mets need him healthy and on top of his game.
Ruben Tejada (Shortstop) – The Mets will miss Jose Reyes, but Tejada can play. He is solid in the field and had a .360 on-base percentage in 96 games last year.
Jason Bay (Left Field) – Bay hasn’t been the same player for the Mets that he was in Pittsburgh and Boston. After six straight seasons with at least 21 home runs and 82 RBIs, he’s had just 18 homers and 104 RBIs for the Mets the last two years.
Andres Torres (Center Field) – Torres was a big part of the San Francisco Giants’ 2010 World Series title, but he didn’t produce the same way last season. In fact, he only hit .221 with four homers and 19 RBIs.
Lucas Duda (Right Field) – The Mets will find a place in right for Duda because of his bat. The big fella performed well in a limited role last season, batting .292 with 21 doubles, 10 home runs and 50 RBIs in 100 games.
Prediction – 4th Place NL East: Even if Santana, Wright and Bay have strong seasons, I’m not sure the Mets have enough else to avoid the basement in what is a very strong division. The Mets are listed as the +5000 long shot to win the NL East.
