2011 New York Mets Predictions
The New York Mets were on the verge of winning a World Series title in 2006. They won the NL East with 97 victories and took the St. Louis Cardinals to seven games in the NLCS. The Mets have failed to build on that season, though. They still appeared close to contending in 2007 and 2008, winning 88 and 89 games respectively to finish second in the division both years. The Mets, however, have taken a major step back the last two seasons, with consecutive fourth place finishes. Baseball odds makers have listed the New York Mets at +4000 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: The Mets’ hopes of getting things turned around in 2011 took a big hit last September when ace Johan Santana underwent surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his throwing shoulder. Santana isn’t expected back until June at the earliest, and it will likely take time to regain his top-of-the-rotation form once he does return. Many pitchers have been able to bounce back from elbow injuries, but shoulders are a different animal.
With Santana out, Mike Pelfrey will likely get the ball on Opening Day. The right-hander went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA in 2010. He’ll be joined in the rotation by knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and southpaw Jonathan Niese. Dicky was a big surprise last season, going 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA. It’s hard for me to believe his knuckler will be quite as effective in 2011. Niese finished last season at 9-10 with a 4.20 ERA.
Dillon Gee, Chris Capuano and Chris Young should all be in the running for the final two rotation spots. Gee went 2-2 with a 2.18 ERA once getting the call up last September. Capuano and Young are both former All-Stars, but their best days are clearly behind them.
Off the field issues aside, Francisco Rodriguez actually pitched well for the Mets in the ninth. He posted a 2.20 ERA and saved 25 games in 2010.
Lineup: Just a few seasons back, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and David Wright were competing against each other, as much as anyone else, for NL MVP honors. The threesome is still formidable but not considered as dangerous as it once was.
Despite a decline the past two seasons, Reyes is still considered one of the better shortstops in the NL. He hit .282 with 11 home runs, 54 RBIs and 30 stolen bases in 133 games a year ago. Beltran went against team wishes and elected not to undergo knee surgery this offseason. It will be interesting to see how that decision affects his season. Wright is the face of the franchise and is coming off a nice campaign. He hit .283 with 29 round trippers, 103 RBIs and 19 stolen bases in 157 games.
First baseman Ike Davis joins Reyes and Wright on the infield, and we could see Luis Castillo, Ruben Tejada or Daniel Murphy at second. Davis is a keeper. He slugged 19 home runs and added 71 RBIs in 2010 while fielding the position well. It will be interesting to see which player gets the most reps at second. I like Murphy the best of the three.
Angel Pagan and Jason Bay will join Beltran in the outfield. Pagan is coming off a special season in which he had 11 home runs, 69 RBIs and 37 stolen bases. Bay is coming off a miserable season that was cut short by a concussion. He is expected to enter 2011 fully healthy, which means his power numbers should return.
Josh Thole is New York’s catcher of the future. He is expected to get the most reps behind home. The Mets have a solid backup in Ronny Paulino if Thole struggles.
Prediction – 4th Place NL East: 2011 looks to be a transition year for the Mets. Even if the team is blessed with enough help to put up good offensive numbers, the pitching is not strong enough to seriously threaten the Phillies or Braves. The Mets are listed at +1500 to win the NL East.
