Get a $500 Bonus on a $500 Deposit at BetUS!

NFL Backup Handicapping

Written by Jimmy Boyd

When you are doing NFL betting there are times when you are going to have to handicap NFL backups. Starters are going to go down, that’s just part of the game and over a long season unless you are Brett Favre or Peyton Manning you can expect that plenty of big name stars will have to take a couple of weeks off at some point at some time in their careers. When this happens you are not going to want to be left holding the bag, and you can’t afford to pass up on games that show value. That is why handicapping football injuries is important, and knowing the backups on the roster can lead to more accurate and winning football picks and a more profitable season.

20% Bonus and Early Lines at Bookmaker!

I would say the toughest thing for the average Joe to realize is that 95% of the time when a backup takes the field over a starter we are not going to change the way we look at the game. Why, because we think backups in the league are often just as good as starters, and here is why:

Human Element

Coaches and general managers are human, which means that they are going to make mistakes as they fill out rosters and depth charts. Everyone has winning the Super Bowl at the top of their list, but you don’t necessarily have the best players out on the field because of differences in philosophy, biases, personalities, and pressures from both inside and outside of the organization. If you have a veteran that is producing but isn’t getting paid very much, and the team has a second-year quarterback that they shelled out big bucks for sitting on the bench, you can bet the coach is going to feel some heat to make the change at the first mistake. You’ll also find that players that are past their prime still get time over younger guys. This is because fans, coaches, and GMs are used to seeing these guys on the field, and if a young player comes in and makes a costly mistake, even though he played better on the whole, more heat is going to come down. It’s also tough to distinguish what the player is capable of now compared to what he was capable of in his prime.

Parity

The talent level when you reach the big time is very even. There is simply not that much difference between a guy who is 2nd on the depth chart and a guy who is starting. Even superstars do not have that much better of abilities than average players in the league. Sure every little bit helps, but in today’s day and age there are just so many good players that it’s tough to standout.

Injuries

Before a guy decides to shut it down, he normally tries to tough it out for a few weeks and play hurt. Also, you simply can’t be playing pro football for any length of time and not be banged up somehow. That physical wear and tear adds up, but for the most part you aren’t going to have those same problems with backups who aren’t getting playing time during the games and are only practicing. Fresh legs can give that player the slight edge to overcome any deficits in talent.

So how can you use this information to make winning NFL expert picks? It’s simple, most of the time when a star goes down the public will jump over the NFL lines for the other side, but if you take a closer look at the game, then you can often times find value going with the team that has the backup. This is especially true when talking about NFL backup quarterbacks, but just make sure you do plenty of research before making your plays as there are guys who are almost irreplaceable and there are bad backups out there.

Get your NFL picks at Locksmith Sports each week!

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in: