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NFL Betting: Chargers at Patriots

Written by Jimmy Boyd

With the San Diego Chargers New England Patriots odds being set at over two touchdowns, it’s the largest spread we have seen in recent memory for a conference championship game. The last time a big game saw this kind of line differential was when the Patriots beat the St. Louis Rams as two touchdown underdogs to win their first Super Bowl title of the Brady-Belicheck era. Now the roles are reversed and LaDainian Tomlinson and company are trying to knock off the undefeated Patriots and get some revenge for knocking San Diego out of the playoffs a year ago.

These are the two hottest teams in the league, so it’s no surprise they are meeting up for the AFC title. New England hasn’t lost a game all year, but they have looked a little more vulnerable over the latter part of the schedule. San Diego on the other hand is looking almost invincible since they lost at Jacksonville back on November 18th. Since then the team has won eight straight games, and beat the Indianapolis Colts last week without LT and Philip Rivers for much of the second half. Sure the offense has been playing well, but it’s the defense that has really stepped up their game. The 24 points that the Colts scored last week was the highest output by an opponent during their winning streak. Now we all know the Patriots can score, but if San Diego can contain the Pats like they did the Colts, then this team could have a shot at winning. A big key to San Diego’s chances will be the play of their injured stars. Rivers is expected to be almost 100%, Tomlinson is expecting to play, but his status is still uncertain, and Gates will most certainly play but he looked hampered in last week’s contest. Those three are going to need to play well for the Chargers to win the game.

New England continued to show that they are the scariest offensive juggernaut the league has ever seen by pouring on 31 points on the Jaguars. Tom Brady was absolutely machine-like with only two in completions, and both of those passes were drops by the receiver. New England added a different look though against Jacksonville as Laurence Maroney got going as the Patriots compiled 145 rushing yards to go with 258 through the air. Randy Moss looked content playing decoy, grabbing only one ball but drawing most of the attention and leaving his teammates to pick apart the defense. Defensively the team gave up 270 passing yards and seemed to let David Garrard have his way around the field, but the Jags strong rushing attack only managed 80 yards rushing. If New England can contain LT in the same way, they should be celebrating another AFC Championship Sunday afternoon.

Interesting Trends:

San Diego is 5-0 ATS over their last five games.
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 15 games San Diego has played on the road.
The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against New England.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the last 8 matchups between these two teams.
San Diego is 1-4 ATS the last five times they have played New England on the road.

New England is 15-8 ATS in their last 23 games.
The Patriots are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
The total has gone OVER in 16 of New England’s last 23 games.
The Patriots have gone UNDER the total in four of their last five games.
New England is just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
The total has gone OVER in eight of New England’s last 12 home games.
The total has gone OVER the last five times San Diego has played in New England.

Odds:

San Diego Chargers +14.5 at BetUS
New England Patriots -14.5 at BetUS

Total is set at 49

Predicted Score:

San Diego Chargers 17
New England Patriots 31

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on January 11, 2008 · Filed Under NFL Betting Articles

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