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NFL Bye Weeks Handicapping

Most bettors and handicappers would tell you that NFL bye weeks provide time for players and coaches to take a little time off to rest, recover, and work on things that have been plaguing them through the first part of the year. The coaching staff will review their game plans and make sure that their players are fundamentally sound, all the while preparing for the upcoming games on the schedule.

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This all seems to make perfect sense, but how can we use that information to make more accurate NFL picks and win more with our football betting? You would think that the NFL sportsbooks have all of the same information that we do concerning how teams perform going into and coming off a bye week that we do when they set the NFL odds for the week. So don’t plan on just plugging in a quick system and then creating winning bets to win on these teams as that is just not going to happen. What we wanted to do though was see if we could find some statistical data that will help us determine how teams perform around a bye week. The results might be a little surprising.

We took a look at a study performed by the Gold Sheet that showed teams coming off of byes over the last three years where only 30-46 ATS, for a whopping 39.5% win rate. So if you actually went against your first instinct and fading the teams coming off byes, you would have made a decent amount with your NFL betting. However, there was more as the teams that came off of a bye only to play a home game the next week were 8-24 ATS when playing a team that did not get to have a bye week right before the contest.

There are plenty of theories that you can come up with to try and explain this phenomenon. You might find that the team on the bye week does not spend as much time practicing, or their time off went to their head and they weren’t as motivated coming out of the box. Of course, a team could have been on a real streak heading into the bye week and when they are forced to take some time off, all that momentum disappeared with it.

So while you shouldn’t blindly play any system, the fact that a team is coming off of the NFL bye week can be used to analyze the game. Is a team trying to bounce back from dealing with injuries? This can either enable them to be healthy or else it can be used to break in the new players and get them acquainted with the other starters. Maybe the coach is really getting after his players hard so they can get back on track after a slow start. Make sure you break down and give yourself a reason why you think the bye week is going to help or hurt the team before making your decision.

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

• Super Bowl Handicapping
• Sports Handicapping Affiliate Program

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