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NFL Handicapping

Written by Jimmy Boyd

Before you start doing your own NFL handicapping there are a couple of things that we want to make sure you know. The first is that there is no guarantee that you are going to come out successful even if you work as much as humanly possible going through the numbers and games. Remember that this is still gambling, so all you can do is put yourself in the best chance of winning, but you aren’t going to be able to predict just how the football is going to bounce on every play. Plus, these guys are human and are going to make mistakes that you just won’t see coming. So why then would you even want to handicap the games and try to figure out the winner if there is so much luck involved? Well because the guys who are making the NFL odds are human too, they make mistakes. You will want to find the games that have a 52% or better chance of beating the spread so you can make money with your NFL betting advice. For more about gambling in general, take a look at our NFL betting guide.

So what are we looking for when doing NFL football handicapping. The first thing you want to take into account is the public wagering action. The sportsbooks can give you a great idea of who the odds makers think are going to win the game by how they adjust their line. If you see more than 75% of the betting money coming in on one side of the game, then normally the lines maker will even out the spread on the game by adjusting the line a little bit. If they do not do this then you can bet they either feel really strongly about the other side, or some wiseguys and professional bettors do so. You’ll see this happen in 3 or 4 games per weekend and these games are great opportunities to win money over your sportsbook by going against what everyone else is doing. Now you should note, if the line moves then the odds makers really have no opinion and they just want to even out the action.

Turnovers are another great NFL handicapping tool. There are teams that turn the ball over more than their opponents. It’s either a quarterback who takes too many chances, a running back that can’t hold on to the ball, or maybe there team just doesn’t create any mistakes. This is a tool that we use more in college football handicapping, but the same applies here. Go against teams that cough up the ball and ride teams that seem to have the ball bounce their way. It is also the case that if a team that plays opposite of their style the week before and the game comes out differently than it would have otherwise, the odds are not going to reflect this turnover margin, so go against the new expectations.

You’ll also want to go over how the weather will affect the game, injury reports, stats, trends, bye weeks, and whatever intangibles you can find. Don’t rely on who the so-called experts on television are saying as they normally just want to make good TV and create some controversy. There are plenty of ways of doing handicapping NFL games, but there are no hard and fast systems that will have you winning money week in and week out. That is why we recommend you get yourself some help by signing up for the NFL picks at this site. Our NFL handicappers will do all the work for you and use their experience to help turn you out profits week after week.

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