NFL Injury Handicapping

One thing that has probably frustrated you if you are a fan of a game, play fantasy football, or if you just like NFL betting are the NFL injury reports. It seems like part of the problem recently has been how team medical personnel and head coaches are falsifying their reports in order to keep opponents on their toes. This seems like a definite slap in the face to fans who want to know if their star players are going to be in on the game. For fantasy players who want to know who they should play and how they should sit, and of course NFL handicappers who need to know if there is any value on betting on one team or the other.

If you don’t know what exactly each word means in the system then take a look: probable means there is a 75% chance you’ll see the player on the field, questionable means 50%, and doubtful means 25%. out is supposed to mean no chance of seeing any action. Prior to the 2004 season, Paul Tagliabue sent a letter to all of the teams stating the need to clarify injuries and be more accurate in their reporting, but there has since been a relaxing of the rules. Of course, there is also the fact that when a player is listed as probably, that means there is a 25% that guy won’t suit up on Sunday, so not every player that isn’t on the field was used to deceive the opposition. 

If accurate information isn’t being posted then the damage done to your NFL picks is obvious. Take a look at how the NFL starts cracking down on the injury reports. If they do nothing, then you might as well pass them over when doing handicapping since they are not going to mean a whole lot. If there is a league-wide crackdown, then you can once again use the injury reports as a tool to handicap the games. So how you do handicap injuries then, let’s take a look at some factors:

Recent Injury History

If there is a guy who is banged up all the time, but hasn’t missed a game over his career, chances are that he is going to play. If someone else seems to take more games off when on the injury report than what’s the average, then you should probably just plan on him being out until he’s actually suiting up.

Check Blogs and Fantasy Sites

These people have sources inside the organization that monitor what is going on at team practices, so they know who is going to be on the field and who isn’t. Don’t underestimate these sites as sources of information for your weekly NFL picks.

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