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2009 NFL Playoffs: Rest v. Rust

After the Wild Card round every year, it’s time to strike up the same old debate. Do you take the rested teams that have had extra time to prepare and to get healthy or do you fade them, having not played a game for two weeks? In this article, we’ll take a look at what your best options might be.

Not too long ago, the NFL teams with an extra week of rest on their side were nearly an automatic call to make to advance on to the conference championship games, but that has not been the case lately. While I wouldn’t recommend betting blindly either way, the numbers suggest that taking the rested teams have put bettors in a world of hurt in recent years. In the last 10 games, teams coming off bye weeks in the playoffs are just 4-6 straight up and a pathetic 1-9 against the spread. Perhaps, the NFL odds makers have over adjusted the lines, or perhaps the league is better as a whole and there is not as large of a gap in talent from the division winners to the wild card teams, or perhaps teams who rested their starters in the final week of the regular season were getting too much rest. It could be some of all of these or none of them, but the facts are that fading the rested teams has been the play.

I have done some research to show you the numbers surrounding this debate dating back to 1991, when the NFL changed its 10-team playoff system to the current 12-team format.

From 1991 to 2007 the rested teams are 55-17 straight up against the unrested Wild Cards teams. Money line players have cashed in big with their NFL picks, and point spread players have profited as well. The rested teams are 38-32-3 against the spread against the unrested Wild Card squads. That’s a 54 percent success rate, which is profitable but not spectacular enough to make it an NFL betting rule of thumb.

Let’s break down these numbers even further to show how taking the rested teams is starting to lose is profitability. From 1991 to 1999 the rested team was 30-6 straight up and also a strong 22-13-1 against the number, a very nice 62.9 percent winning rate. From 2000 to 2007, the rested team was 25-11 straight up, but only 16-19-1 against the spread, a 45.7 percent clip. In other words, we have seen a 17.2 percent drop in the rested system from the first decade to this one. Note that the decade is not over yet and these numbers could go back the other way, but it is apparent that the rested teams have played more rusty in recent years.

If your buddies at work have been spouting off about how the rested teams are the play, you may want to have them take a look at the numbers before they go handing over their hard earned money to the man.

If you don’t feel like you have a good handle on these matchups, or if you would like another opinion to boost your confidence, make sure you consult Jimmy Boyd’s NFL expert picks this weekend before making any costly mistakes.

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

• NFL Odds & Predictions: 2009 NFL Divisional Playoffs
• NFL Playoff Picks: 2009 Wild Card Weekend
• 2009 Super Bowl Picks
• 2009 NFC Predictions
• 2009 Super Bowl Predictions

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