NFL Preseason Betting Tips
There is the perception that betting on the NFL Preseason is just a good way to throw your money away, but I’m here to tell you that I have had a lot of success making NFL preseason football picks and it has everything to do with my approach. My NFL Preseason betting tips will help you find some more value in preseason games.
#1 Depth Factor
This is the biggest factor to look for. Teams which can go two-to-three players deep will have a decisive advantage because the backups are the guys who are getting most of the playing time in these games. Depth is especially pivotal at the QB position. For example, the Houston Texans are supposed to be a mediocre team, but they have an experienced backup in Sage Rosenfels who has proven that he is very capable of starting. A guy like this has a big advantage over second and third string defensive units.
#2 Experience Factor
In the preseason, experience can work a little bit differently. Teams which have experienced players who are perennial starters want to make sure those guys enter the regular season healthy so they won’t be taking many preseason snaps. Teams such as the Oakland Raiders, who have a lot of young talent and who will have a lot of competition for starting roles, actually gives you an edge over teams which are presumably better during the regular season.
Experience also works the same way that it does in terms of the regular season in certain cases. For example, teams which have had a system in place for a number of years and are very familiar with that system will have less blunders and errors than teams who are trying to adjust to new coaches and systems.
#3 Motivational Factor
Key position battles, as I discussed previously, can give you an edge. Players who are motivated to earn a starting job will perform better than those who know they will be starting no matter what or those who know they are already penciled in at second string. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, who have not yet named a starting QB, should have some heavy competition.
Also, many times coaches tell us exactly when we can expect their teams to be motivated because of how accessible coaches are to the media during this time. So watch to see when coaches tell you to expect to see their starters for considerable time, etc. Many coaches make their game plans known in the media prior to the upcoming game in the preseason. You can use this same criteria to find teams worthy of fading.
#4 Scheduling Factor
The fresher team often wins in the NFL so look to see which teams will be playing with adequate rest and which teams will not. This is a similar strategy to what is used in the regular season in support of teams coming off of a bye week. Also, sometimes an edge can be found by fading a team who is playing its first preseason game against a team who has already played one. The theory is that the team which has already played will have the jitters out and will have already gained some confidence.
#5 Numerical Factors
Following the numbers is another way to help you beat the NFL preseason odds and many times these numbers just reiterate how each team handles its preseason business. For example, the New England Patriots are 19-8 ATS in home games in August since 1993, winning these games by 8.6 points per game on average. This just goes to show you that the Patriots have lived up to their billing as a franchise which takes winning seriously.
