NFL Season Win Totals

In every professional sport there are futures bets to be made, but most of the time they concentrate on which team is going to win the division, conference, and league title. With NFL betting there is another option and that is to be on the over or under on the number of games a team will win over the course of the year. Over recent years more and more people are taking a chance with this wager, both in Las Vegas and in online sportsbooks. 

There seems to be three different kinds of people who make these types of bets. The largest group are those who bet recreationally and who just want to have some action on their favorite team. Most of the time these guys will be set on the over, since it’s not like they want to root against their favorite team at the end of the year when they need a few losses to ensure they stay under the posted total. While these types of guys do not normally bet that much on their season win totals, there is such a large volume of these players that they have to be given respect by the odds makers. 

Another type of bettor is the group who actually makes educated NFL predictions on how the season is going to play out. They take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team and then go up and down the schedule plotting out the exact number of wins. If they see value, then they place their action. Normally these kinds of bettors will place a little bit higher of a dollar amount on the teams they are betting on, and they don’t really mind rooting against a team if they need the under to cash.

The last group of bettors on NFL season win totals are the guys who are just trying to middle the action. These scalpers or middlers are trying to take advantage of the different numbers posted at different books in order to make a profit without putting themselves at risk at all.

We know that there are some professional NFL handicappers out there who think they should avoid this proposition. However, smart gamblers know that if there are potential profits to be made then there is no reason to be sitting on the sidelines, and if the general public has an influence on the number then more times than not it can be beat. The general public loves betting the over, and they love these win totals bets because if they take the over on their favorite team, it’s just like having bet on them on the money line for 16 straight games for a lower cost.

So how do the NFL sportsbooks come up with the numbers they are going to release? Normally the odds making staff will get together and each post a number on the total wins they expect out of a team for the year, then they will compare the results before coming to some sort of consensus. As other books post their numbers and action starts coming in, comparisons will be made and adjustments possibly made as well.

The most important factor in setting the NFL odds on win totals is the team’s personnel and the schedule but the actual opponents aren’t as important as one might think. This is because with the parity in today’s league, there aren’t any real easy wins on the schedules.

There are some seasons where you are going to find a team that is heads and tails above the rest, and that team will normally be slated to win between 11 or 12 games, with the bottom feeders between 4 and 5 games. Most of the league will have their posted win totals between seven and ten wins. 

Of course, every year there are plenty of teams that rack up double digit wins and there are other teams that disappoint and win fewer than five games, showing that there are some opportunities for savvy NFL handicapping experts to make a profit. One of the downsides to these wagers though is that it takes too long to collect your profits. Think about it like this, if you can make a decent amount of money by playing our NFL picks each and every week, then why would you want to make a bet that would take you five months to collect? It’s simple time value of money here, and the fact that it ties up some of your bankroll that you could be using to beat the weekly NFL odds to cash more winners.

Remember that as money comes in on these bets, the actual win totals are not going to change, but the money lines will. For instance, most of these bets carry at least a 30-cent line, so the Patriots might be Over 10.5 -130 and Under 10.5 +100. If a lot of action comes in on the Over, then the juice might raise to -150 while the under will show +120 in value. Normally there isn’t a single team that won’t have their money line adjusted at some point. The only way you are going to see the actual number move is if there is a significant injury to a star quarterback or running back. Then you have to do your homework like we recommend in our article on NFL backup quarterbacks.

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