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North Carolina v. Florida State Football Betting Odds & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd

fsu unc 101909 The Florida State Seminoles head to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina to take on the Tar Heels in a Thursday night ACC clash on ESPN. Both of these teams entered the season with high hopes of a conference championship but both teams are yet to record their first conference victory. In their last game, the Seminoles fell to 0-3 in ACC play with a 49-44 loss to Georgia Tech while the Heels were able to rebound from back-to-back conference defeats with an easy non-conference win over Georgia Southern. These teams have not met since 2004 when FSU won 38-16 to improve to 14-1-1 all-time against the Heels. NCAA football odds makers have listed the North Carolina Tar Heels as the 2.5-point favorite.

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Florida State must improve defensively if it hopes to get its season turned around. QB Christian Ponder and the offense were explosive in two losses to highly respected Miami and Georgia Tech, but the defense was non-existent. The Seminoles have been shredded on the ground in each of their last three losses, allowing a ridiculous 401 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last game. To make matters worse, the defense was dealt a bad hand when linebacker Maurice Harris was lost for the season after sustaining a neck injury against Georgia Tech. But the Noles are hoping to get cornerback Patrick Robinson back. Robinson is considered the team’s best cover corner. He sat out the Georgia Tech game with an ankle injury but is listed as questionable for Thursday’s contest. If he is able to go, it would be a big boost for the Noles against a UNC team that has had much better success moving the football through the air. Young players like tackle Jacobi McDaniel may see more playing time as the Noles look for answers on the defensive side of the football.

Until the defense comes around, Ponder and the offense will continue to try to outscore their opponents. They face a stiff task this week against a UNC defense ranked fifth in the nation in total yards allowed and third in the country against the pass. It is worth noting that the Seminoles are 8-3-2 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog and the road team is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings in this matchup. If you expect these trends to continue, bet FSU at +2.5 at BetUS.

While Florida State’s problem has been its defense, North Carolina’s problem has been its offense. The Tar Heels are averaging only five points per game in their two conference defeats. The offense would really benefit if it could get its running game going to take some of the pressure off QB T.J. Yates. Perhaps it will be able to do so against an FSU defense that has been gashed on the ground. UNC has 664 rushing yards this season, but 425 of those have come against FCS teams. In fact, UConn, Georgia Tech, and Virginia all held the Heels to 39 or fewer yards rushing. The Heels will hope running back Ryan Houston, who is tied for fifth in the ACC with seven touchdowns, can be the difference maker this week.

Defensively, UNC has played well, particularly against the pass, but it will have to be on top of its game Thursday night with Ponder coming to town. Ponder leads the league in passing, throwing for just under 300 yards per game. Defensive end Robert Quinn is the guy I’ll be keeping an eye on for UNC. He has seven sacks (2nd in the ACC), 11 tackles for loss (1st ACC), and three forced fumbles. If he can bring the heat, it will go a long way toward the Heels getting the win. It is worth noting that the Tar Heels are 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven games following a bye week and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven home games. If you like the Tar Heels to pick up their first ACC win and cover the number in the process, bet North Carolina at -2.5 at BetUS.

Score big Thursday night with expert football picks from world champion handicapper Jimmy Boyd!

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