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NFL Odds: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Written by Brad Marchetti

A crucial AFC East divisional battle awaits the New England Patriots (6-4) when they travel south to face the Miami Dolphins (6-4). The Pats have revenge on the mind which has been an ideal situation for New England coach Bill Belichick (13-1 ATS off loss). Miami has exceeded expectations under rookie head coach Tony Sparano but will it last? The NFL odds on the SPREAD for the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins game New England -1 point.

For New England to avenge their embarrassing 14-38 loss they will need to stop Miami RB Ronnie Brown (4.45 40-speed 6’0” 232 Lb.) and the Wildcat formation. The Dolphins scored 4 TD’s off direct snaps to Brown in the first meeting. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has had an extra 3 days to prepare for the Wildcat so don’t expect New England to be caught off guard this time around. For Miami to have a strong offensive outing they will need to execute from their base offense. WR Ted Ginn Jr. (4.30 5’11” 175) has developed into a big-play option for QB Chad Pennington (92.8 passer rating). New England’s secondary has allowed a high 93.0 passer rating with an ordinary 19.0 sacks. The Patriots linebackers suffered a setback with the loss of 270 Lb. OLB Adalius Thomas (broken forearm). New England has allowed only 104.0 yards per game with the emergence of rookie ILB Jerod Mayo (4.50 6’2” 230).

Patriots second-year QB Matt Cassel (87.3 passer rating) has shown the poise and mobility to give Miami problems. After a mediocre game (131 yds.1TD 1 INT) against Miami in their last meeting, look for Cassel to move the ball behind improved line play. The Patriots playbook should also expand with the return of RB’s Lamont Jordan (5’10” 230 4.50) and Sammy Morris (6’0” 220 4.60). Miami’s secondary gives good effort but has yielded an 86.6 passer rating. Cassel will need to connect with bookend WR Randy Moss (6’4” 210 4.35) on some long pass-plays for the offense to be effective. NFL sack leader OLB Joey Porter (450+ bench-press) has led a strong Miami pass-rush that has recorded 27.0 sacks. The NFL betting OVER\UNDER for the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins game is at 42.0 points.

This is rare situation for New England as they enter the game a as a road underdog. The Patriots are 9-3-1 ATS in this situation. Miami stomped the Pats the first time around but was it a fluke? If you want to make your NFL football picks on the MONEYLINE for the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins game is at Pick‘em.

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