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Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos NFL Odds & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd

The 5-2 defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers head to the Mile High City to take on the 6-1 Denver Broncos on ESPN’s Monday Night Football. The Steelers have won four straight and are coming off a bye week while the Broncos saw their undefeated season come to an end with a 30-7 loss in Baltimore last week. These two teams last met back in 2007 and it was a good one. The Broncos needed a 49-yard field goal from Jason Elam as time expired to defeat the Steelers 31-28. Denver has won four of the last five meetings and owns a 16-9-1 advantage in the all-time series. NFL odds makers have the Broncos going down for a second straight week, listing the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3-point favorite with the total set at 39.5.

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The big question we are all asking this week is how Denver will respond following its first defeat of the season. Will the Broncos now come back down to earth or can head coach Josh McDaniels keep his team believing? If they are ready to play Monday night, they should have a pretty darn good shot with QB Kyle Orton at the controls. Orton is 27-13 (.675) in his career as a starter. According to my research, that puts him only behind Tom Brady and his opponent Ben Roethlisberger for career winning percentage with a minimum of 25 starts. But when we look even closer, we see that Orton is a ridiculous 18-2 as a starter at home in his career. To put it in perspective, that’s the best mark in the NFL since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

It’s hard to find many weaknesses on the Steelers, but one glaring weakness has been their special teams play. Pittsburgh has given up three touchdowns on special teams in the last four weeks. This means that Eddie Royal could play a big part in helping Denver earn a victory Monday. Royal just might be able to have a big day on returns to keep Denver with good field position.

Despite what you may have heard, Elvis is alive and well. I’m not talking about the king of rock and roll, I’m talking about the king of sacks. Denver’s Elvis Dumervil leads the AFC with 10 QB sacks. Roethlisberger’s high sack totals are well documented and Dumervil has the potential to make it a long day for Big Ben. It is worth noting that the Steelers are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less. If you like Denver to improve to 4-0 at home this season, bet the Broncos at +3 at BetUS.

I don’t know if it’s that extra day of preparation time or what, but Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is a perfect 4-0 on the Monday night stage. I guess it doesn’t hurt that he’s got one of the NFL’s best defenses and best quarterbacks playing for him. Roethlisberger is having a monster year, already throwing for 2,062 yards and 11 scores. He has thrown at least one touchdown strike in every game this season. Since getting off to a 1-2 start, the Steelers have looked like a team capable of repeating, winning four straight by eight points or more. With a running game that comes and goes, the Steelers will once again count on Roethlisberger to lead them to victory with a big night through the air. While teams have been able to do a good job of getting to Big Ben initially and shutting down his first reads, no one in the game is better at keeping plays alive and making something out of noting with his ability to shake tacklers and his dangerous pump fakes. If the Broncos don’t stay disciplined in their assignments throughout the entire play, Big Ben could have a huge day. It is worth noting that the Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games. If you like Pittsburgh to win its fifth straight game and cover the field goal chalk, bet the Steelers at -3 at BetUS.

Score the cash Monday night with NFL expert picks from World Champion Handicapper Jimmy Boyd!

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