2011 Preakness Stakes Picks
We expect to see a field of 14 sent off on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course for the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes. I have broken down the field and isolated five horses with a legitimate chance of winning the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.
Animal Kingdom (+270) – Those who backed this horse in the Kentucky Derby received a nice 20-to-1 payday. Those who decide to back Animal Kingdom again in the Preakness won’t get nearly as much bang for the buck. That doesn’t mean you should lay off if you like this horse. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness is a race that has been dominated by short-priced horses in recent years. Only Bernardini (2006) and Red Bullet (2000) have paid more than $10 for a $2 win bet in the Preakness since 2000. It is also worth noting that the favorite has won seven of the last eleven Preakness Stakes. Animal Kingdom has been very consistent with three wins and two places in five career starts.
Dialed In (+400) – The Kentucky Derby favorite, who finished a disappointing eighth, is looking for a little redemption at Pimlico. Prior to the Derby, he had finished no worse than second in four races with three wins. This horse reminds me a lot of Lookin At Lucky, the 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite who took sixth. Looking At Lucky bounced back to win the Preakness and Dialed In may just have what it takes to do the same.
Mucho Macho Man (+425) – Mucho Macho Man’s third place finish in the Kentucky Derby was business as usual. It was the eighth time he had finished third or better in nine career starts. He finished fourth at the Holy Bull Stakes in his only race outside the top three.
Shackleford (+1000) – Many believed Shackleford’s performance at the Florida Derby was a fluke until he nearly went wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Derby. Shack came up a nose shy of paying win bets at 68-to-1 in Florida. He then led the entire way in the Kentucky Derby before running out of steam down the stretch and taking fourth at just 3.5 lengths behind the winner. The Preakness Stakes is a shorter race (1 3/16 miles), which means he could have enough to hold off the late kickers.
Astrology (+1500) – Only three non-Kentucky Derby horses in the last 25 years have won the Preakness Stakes, but Astrology has a chance to be one of these rare winners. He’s finished third or better in all seven on his races. He also hails from the same stable (Stonestreet Stables) that has produced two of the last four Preakness winners (Curlin 2007, Rachel Alexandra 2009). Those who like Astrology will also like to know that Rachel Alexandra was one of those rare horses that won the Preakness without first running in the Kentucky Derby.
Sway Away (+1500) – This is my pedigree pick. Sway Away is the son of Afleet Alex, who won both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 2005. He has finished fourth or better in four of five races with two places and a win.
2011 Preakness Stakes Predictions – Win: Dialed In, Place: Shackleford, Show: Mucho Macho Man
Past Preakness Stakes Picks
